I’ve been on the road since Thursday and have little time to update charts, but for those asking, my bias remains the same as the last few months:
The invalidation I gave a while ago has not been hit and thus nothing has changed: I remain HTF bullish until we decisively lose 104k (unsustained moves to 100k are fine).
Price is still within the same local range as the last few months and thus I will continue to assume a range until it breaks.
If the local range breaks down my invalidation will surely be activated but so far that simply has not happened.
Please understand that my invalidation do

Unsurprisingly, the feed is starting to fill with posts from people short from ATH after the price has dropped 20k from the top.
When we're back at ATHs in a couple of weeks, the same people will post why they're long from the last HTF bottom.
Can't beat Captain Hindsight.

I do feel I must make a disclaimer here that this is NOT me saying you should ape into longs here.
I am positioned from macro bottoms, which obviously means the way I am approaching this is much different compared to someone who has no exposure.
Obviously this is not a place to ape into massive leveraged longs.

Going live in 1 hour in the public @BrighterData Discord to go over Bitcoin PA and statistics!

About 4.5 years ago I quit my 9-5 to try and make it for myself.
I had worked for 2 years after uni and had saved up enough money to last between 9-12 months, and figured that would have to do.
I was 28 at the time, and I realized I had a window of opportunity that was closing on me. The risk becomes greater as the years and responsibilities accumulate.
So when I get told I took a big risk (heard that a lot), I would argue that depends on how you look at the risk.
The risk of trying was this: running out of money, and ending up stuck in a worse job.
This is the risk that might instill enough

$BTC
Now that price took out the weekly and monthly high, things are looking very good for continued upside into price discovery.
Weekly Timeframe
- Only 8% of weeks would take out the weekly low
- 97.6% of bullish weeks move higher
- The 90% and 80% confidence targets are at 125.2 and 125.6k respectively: price discovery
Monthly Timeframe
- Only 12% of months would take out the monthly low
- 100% of bullish months see further displacement
- Monthly 90% confidence target is at 131k
Given that the weekly will most likely be bullish, the risk of taking out the monthly low will most likely be eve