April 9, 2026

As expected, the market has pulled back again. Yesterday's strong rally was due to short-term emotional outbursts after long-term suppression. In other words, the influence of sentiment was too strong, and the price was somewhat overextended. Now, the price has returned to rationality. The U.S. stock market also surged after positive news, and we still need to pay attention to the specific opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the agreement reached by both parties, the passage will be open for 14 days. It has not officially opened yet, but the first ships daring to go through will definitely be official cargo ships. Hopefully, this matter will be settled soon. It is worth mentioning that there are reports saying Iran plans to charge in BTC, but the authenticity is uncertain. If true, it would undoubtedly be a significant international advertisement for BTC, and more people will learn about the convenience of paying with BTC.
However, I personally doubt the authenticity of this news. On one hand, the 14-day navigation fee is not a lot compared to Iran's oil revenue. On the other hand, the price of BTC has not yet been reflected, so it could very well be a crypto enthusiast’s self-hype. Anyway, the U.S.-Iran conflict is developing in a positive direction, which is a real positive for financial assets.
Currently, the market continues to fluctuate. If the U.S.-Iran situation continues to develop favorably, there is a chance for a strong rally. However, I don’t dare to have too many expectations about this, as such a major event cannot end easily, just like Russia-Ukraine. I initially planned to sell some at 2300, but the price didn’t go up and then fell back. So, in the coming months, I think it’s best to stay cautious.