CITIC Futures: Domestic markets remain stable, while overseas continue to wait for clarity on the Iran situation

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-07T08:21:48+00:00

This week, the situation of the US-Iran conflict remains volatile, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still low. The crude oil price center has further risen, subtly fueling the narrative of "stagflation." Although there are signs of easing in the latest news, the ongoing negotiations among multiple parties still need to reconcile various demands. In the short term, the development of the geopolitical situation is expected to remain uncertain. The tangible impact of geopolitical conflicts on the overseas macroeconomy has not yet become evident, but expectations have already begun to be affected. On the ground, the US economy remains stable, with some economic data such as non-farm payrolls in March indicating a phased rebound. However, outside of the current reality, markets and residents are starting to develop more negative expectations about the future of the macroeconomy. In March, the US Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index declined by 1.1 points, reflecting a marginal pessimism among US residents regarding future consumption prospects.Against the backdrop of overseas conflicts, data confirms that the domestic macro environment remains stable. In March, manufacturing PMI rebounded, with both supply and demand showing signs of recovery.

K-LinePoet

2026-04-07 08:21:48

This week, the situation in the Iran-U.S. conflict continues to see ups and downs. Transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz remains low. The crude oil price center of gravity has the potential to rise further, which in turn has slightly further fueled the “stagflation” narrative. Although the latest news shows some signs of easing, amid games among multiple parties, it is still necessary to reconcile the demands of all sides. In the short term, developments in the geopolitical situation are still expected to remain unclear.

As for the real-world impact of geopolitical conflicts on overseas macroeconomies, it has not yet shown any significant reflection, but damage has begun to appear on the expectations side. On the real side, the U.S. economy remains steady, and even some data—such as March nonfarm payrolls—suggest a phase of rebound. But beyond reality, the market and residents have already begun to form more negative expectations about the future of the macroeconomy. In March, the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index fell by 1.1 points, reflecting that U.S. residents’ outlook on future consumption prospects has marginally deteriorated.

Against the backdrop of overseas conflicts, data continues to confirm that the domestic macro environment remains stable. In March, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, with both supply and demand improving. In March, the manufacturing PMI composite index was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points month over month. Among the main subcategory indexes, both production-demand and employment conditions showed rebounds.

Before the Iran geopolitical situation shows any significant signs of easing, it may continue to become the main influencing factor for global large asset categories. However, given the extremely high uncertainty regarding the direction of impact, we do not recommend that investors use the evolving dynamics of the geopolitical situation as the basis for investment decisions. Instead, we suggest that during this period, investors should control portfolio exposure and maintain a wait-and-see stance. (CITIC Futures)

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