Been thinking about how the stock-to-flow model actually works, and why PlanB's bitcoin price prediction framework from a few years back still matters for understanding market cycles.

So here's the thing - if you look at precious metals like gold and silver, there's this mathematical relationship between how much is already in circulation versus how much new supply comes in. PlanB basically applied this same logic to Bitcoin. The idea is that as Bitcoin halvings occur, the flow of new coins slows down dramatically, which historically has pushed prices higher.

Let me break down the model. After the May 2020 halving, the theory suggested Bitcoin could potentially reach around $100,000 by the 2024 halving cycle. The formula worked backwards from historical data - showing that by end of 2021, we'd see roughly $26,000, then $35,000 by 2022, and $50,000 by 2023. Basically a gradual climb year over year.

What's interesting is the halvings themselves. The first two halvings did trigger bull markets within a year or so after they occurred. So when the third halving happened in May 2020, the expectation was that similar patterns would repeat. Using the stock-to-flow ratio, the math suggested roughly a 10x increase from May 2020 leading into the next halving period.

Now, does this bitcoin price prediction model hold up perfectly? Not exactly. We're past 2025 now, and Bitcoin's price action has been messier than a straight line up. But the underlying logic about how scarcity drives value - that part has proven pretty durable across multiple market cycles.

The model predicted Bitcoin could exceed $1 trillion in market value by 2028. Whether that happens or not, the framework itself is worth understanding if you're trying to think through longer-term cryptocurrency trends. It's one of the more serious attempts to apply historical market mechanics to a new asset class.