CITIC Construction Investment: Shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz remains very low, emphasizing the medium- and long-term trends in the oil transportation industry

MetaMuskRat · 2026-04-07T07:07:02+00:00

CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February, daily traffic has plummeted, exacerbating global crude oil inventories and increasing systemic risk. Shipping freight rates rose during the conflict period, and in the future, there may be a rush to secure oil due to the reopening, leading to freight rate increases lasting over two months. Due to multiple factors, the oil shipping cycle may extend until 2029–2031.

MetaMuskRat

2026-04-07 07:07:02

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People’s Finance and News, April 7—CITIC Securities Construction Investment pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz’s traffic volume has fallen sharply. Since the closure in February, the daily passage volume has dropped from the normal 140 ships to only a tiny number of special vessels passing through, nearly completely closed. We should focus on the real trading impacts, such as the consumption of crude oil and refined oil inventories; the longer the strait remains closed, the larger the decline in global inventories and the higher the systemic risk. Oil shipping freight rates are expected to evolve in three stages: during the conflict period, freight rates rise; vessel reallocation stretches voyage distances and pushes up the freight rate benchmark; and after the reopening, the rush-for-oil market may drive freight rates higher by more than 2 months. Affected by factors including shrinking shipyard capacity, a capacity gap from the aging VLCC fleet, shadow fleets being unable to enter mainstream markets, longer voyage distances, and the consumption of capacity due to ships being trapped in the strait, among others, the oil shipping cycle is expected to be extended to 2029—2031.

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