Today’s U.S. stock market closed with a “bizarre” combination of signals: WTI crude oil futures surged nearly +11% in a single day—an “historic” level of volatility—yet U.S. energy stocks hardly followed the rally, with XOM opening high and closing near its lowest point of the day. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index, which had plummeted pre-market, rebounded after an initial gap down, ultimately closing nearly flat.

Oil prices surged → Oil stocks did not rise → The broader market did not fall but steadied. This is the first time since the current conflict that these three have “completely decoupled.”

What does this imply?

Over the past month, the market has been driven by a narrative of “low-cost, high-leverage”: Iran and its proxies have been coordinating with anti-Trump sentiment, using fragmented incidents (drones, missiles, explosions, shipping lane disruptions) to continuously create risk expectations around the Strait of Hormuz, amplifying oil price volatility. This, in turn, influences market sentiment and ultimately affects global investor decisions.

This chain of events uses minimal actual impact to trigger significant market fluctuations—and it has worked multiple times recently.

But today, this chain “failed.”

The market is beginning to reject paying for “sentiment premiums.” Oil prices are rising, but capital is no longer blindly chasing energy stocks; war news is fermenting, but indices are no longer falling in panic.

The deeper reason is that the nature of the conflict itself has fundamentally changed. Iran’s core military capabilities (especially drones and missile systems) have been significantly weakened, and its command system has suffered systemic damage. Meanwhile, the U.S. has sent clear signals—its strategic objectives are largely achieved, and the next phase depends on whether Iran chooses further confrontation. This means the “marginal uncertainty” of the war is rapidly decreasing. The conflict is judged by ongoing attacks and defensive capabilities, not lone-wolf terrorist acts.

The market has understood this.

If this judgment is correct, today could mark a watershed—after a month, U.S. stocks are beginning to shake off the shadow of war narratives and return to their own operational track.

Going forward, the market will no longer be dominated by missiles and shipping lanes, but by earnings, interest rates, capital expenditures, and real capital flows.