Surprise in American data: the US economy accelerates beyond expectations

The U.S. economy showed unexpected resilience with January employment data that completely contradicted bearish forecasts. The market was expecting a weak jobs report following cautious comments from Kevin Hassett, but the reality turned out to be diametrically opposed to general expectations.

Unemployment Falls: The Market Was Wrong

The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, effectively beating consensus estimates held at 4.4%. This data clearly signals resilience in the U.S. economy at a time when many analysts predicted a cooling of employment. The figure is even more significant considering that January typically shows volatility in employment data, yet the economy maintained strength.

Private Sector Accelerates: 172,000 New Jobs

The most impressive figure concerns job creation in the private sector, which added 172,000 jobs in January, the highest level in a year. Overall, the U.S. economy generated 130,000 new jobs, the highest total since April 2025. This employment dynamic reflects still-robust labor demand despite global macroeconomic challenges.

Implications for Monetary Policy: Rate Cuts at Risk

The strength of the positive employment data has immediate consequences for the Federal Reserve’s outlook. Markets had begun pricing in significant monetary easing in March, but this jobs report has substantially altered those expectations. With an economy continuing to add jobs well above usual trends, it is now unlikely that the central bank will proceed with rate reductions in the near term.

Robust employment in early January indicates that the U.S. economy maintains an inflationary momentum, making further monetary easing even more difficult. The balance between job growth and price stability remains the key factor guiding the Fed’s upcoming decisions.