Will 2026 be a breakthrough year for Bitcoin? VanEck's analysis indicates a chance for a rebound

Bitcoin went through a stagnation period in 2025, characterized by limited liquidity and reduced investor risk appetite. As a result of these conditions, digital assets lagged behind traditional markets, particularly the Nasdaq 100 index and gold. However, investment institutions like VanEck see this scenario as a foundation for a significant rebound in 2026, especially considering the rising cycles of currency devaluation and the returning liquidity in markets.

Challenges of 2025: Why Bitcoin was Outpaced

The year 2025 brought disappointment to Bitcoin holders. The cryptocurrency’s price peaked at around $126,000 at the beginning of the year but then experienced noticeable declines. During this period, investors observed that Bitcoin yielded about 50% less return compared to the Nasdaq 100 index, while gold experienced much stronger gains.

David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, points out the fundamental reasons for this disparity. Limited financing options and weakened tolerance for market uncertainty resulted in decreased capital allocation to speculative assets. Institutions systematically reduced their exposure, further weighing on Bitcoin’s price.

Paradoxically, this relative weakness could serve as a foundation for a potential rebound. Growing valuation differences between asset classes have historically signaled a return to mean values and a redistribution of capital.

Macroeconomic Forces Hidden Beneath the Surface

VanEck argues that the original investment thesis regarding Bitcoin remains fully relevant despite short-term perturbations. The key to changing the scenario lies in currency devaluation processes and transformations within global liquidity cycles.

Schassler emphasizes that when inflationary pressures accelerate and governments intensify monetary expansion, Bitcoin historically reacts with a decisive increase. Past periods of fiat currency devaluation exposure have been accompanied by spectacular Bitcoin growth over the following 12-24 months.

The analogy to gold is particularly relevant here. Both Bitcoin and precious metals traditionally serve as hedges against erosion of purchasing power and financial stress. Schassler compares these two assets, indicating that during times of uncertainty and instability, institutions and individual investors seek rare assets that can protect their wealth.

Projections for 2026: Volatility as an Opportunity

VanEck’s forecast for 2026 suggests that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce, supported by the results from 2025, when the price increased by over 70% to around $4,492 per ounce. This commodities rally indicates a broader shift of markets toward defensive and scarce assets.

The current Bitcoin price of around $90,790 remains subject to significant fluctuations, but the market infrastructure is gradually stabilizing. The VanEck team is actively increasing its exposure, based on the belief that returning liquidity and decreasing pressure on trading margins will be catalysts for growth.

Technical resistance, which has hampered upward momentum in recent months, may be broken when market sentiment improves. Cryptocurrency market history shows that periods of deep hash rate declines often precede rebounds, with positive Bitcoin returns within 90 days following hash rate drops occurring in about 65% of cases.

Broader Context: Reindustrialization and Energy Transformations

Beyond cryptocurrency markets, Schassler points to a quiet commodities boom driven by artificial intelligence, energy transformations, robotics, and the industrial revolution. Demand for infrastructure related to these transformations creates the foundation for a new global economy, indirectly supporting the thesis of increasing demand for rare, intangible assets like Bitcoin.

The VanEck team managing fixed income instruments expresses caution regarding return forecasts in 2026, suggesting that potential gains may depend more on episodic volatility than on sustained growth trends. An important factor remains the political dilemmas of the US Federal Reserve, where weakening labor market conditions conflict with resilient economic growth and persistent inflation.

Summary: Devaluation as a Catalyst

VanEck’s core thesis is that currency devaluation processes and transformations within macroeconomic cycles set the stage for Bitcoin to become one of the best-performing assets in 2026. Poor performance in 2025 is not seen as a failure of the investment thesis but rather as a matter of timing and market entry.

For investors who understand the long-term forces driving Bitcoin prices, 2026 could be a breakthrough year, where overdue results are offset by an intense rebound.