The beginning of the year marked by stabilization – Financial market overview at the opening of 2026

New Year with Limited Trading

On January 1, 2026, most global stock exchanges remained closed due to New Year celebrations, resulting in a noticeable reduction in trading activity. Despite this short-term slowdown, the last days of the previous year provided valuable insights into the prospects for the upcoming months. Markets entered the new year with mixed signals – some asset classes ended 2025 in the red, but the full-year balance remained decidedly positive for many investors.

Precious Metals Dominate the Investment Scene

The precious metals sector experienced an exceptional year. Gold rose by 64% during 2025, marking the largest annual jump since 1979, over 45 years ago. Silver showed even more spectacular results – over 147% increase, breaking all previous historical records. Platinum surged by over 122%, and palladium increased by 75%, marking the strongest annual change in a decade and a half.

On the last trading day of 2025, we observed a technical pullback in prices. Spot gold fell by 0.6% to $4,318.67 per ounce, silver plummeted by 6.7% to $71.36, and platinum declined by 8.7% to $2,006.95 per ounce. Analysts clearly indicate that short-term declines are natural profit-taking after the spectacular rally.

However, long-term prospects remain optimistic. Experts forecast that gold could surpass $5,000 per ounce in 2026, and silver has a chance to break the $100 barrier. The rise in precious metals prices was supported by: systematic interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, ongoing geopolitical tensions, consistent gold purchases by central banks, and strong capital inflows into ETFs. Silver additionally benefited from deep structural supply shortages, historically low inventories, increasing industrial demand, and recognition as a critical material by the United States.

Oil Awaits Stabilization

The energy sector paints a very different picture. Oil prices fell on the last trading day of 2025, with the full-year change nearly -20%, the largest annual decline since 2020. Brent crude decreased by 0.8% to $60.85 per barrel, while WTI fell by 0.9% to $57.42 per barrel.

Paradoxically, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, sanctions on many producers, and uncertainty related to the Trump administration’s trade policies, the main factor remained oversupply. A series of three consecutive years of falling Brent oil prices represents the longest such sequence in the data history. Shale producers were supported by hedging at high price levels, increasing production resilience to fluctuations. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that U.S. production in October reached record levels, and gasoline and distillate inventories recently increased significantly above expectations.

Financial institutions predict further declines in the first quarter of 2026, followed by a gradual return to $60 per barrel in the second half of the year as supply dynamics stabilize. The market is focusing on the global balance of supply and demand, OPEC+ production decisions, and geopolitical developments in producing countries.

Stock Indices Ended the Year with Declines, but the Annual Balance Remained Strong

Major U.S. indices corrected on the last trading day of 2025: Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.63%, S&P 500 declined by 0.74%, and Nasdaq decreased by 0.76%. Despite these year-end profit realizations, the full-year balance showed double-digit gains for all three indices, continuing the growth for the third consecutive year.

2025 was characterized by significant volatility, mainly driven by uncertainty around Trump’s trade policies and investment enthusiasm related to artificial intelligence. AI sector companies repeatedly led indices to new highs. Chip manufacturers increased by 39% annually, becoming the first listed company with a market capitalization exceeding $5 trillion. The communication sector, driven by a 65% rise in Alphabet, proved to be the strongest segment in the S&P 500.

At the end of the year, profit-taking pressure affected the energy and technology sectors. However, analysts emphasize that the recent correction is normal market volatility and does not change the overall positive outlook. Further market breadth expansion is expected, with investment opportunities broadening beyond a narrow group of tech giants into wider sectors and global markets.

Nike rose by 4% on Wednesday contrary to the trend, after the CEO purchased shares worth a million dollars, signaling confidence in the company’s future prospects.

For 2026, the market direction will depend on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Investors expect further easing after the new dovish Fed chair takes office. The question remains whether a tight labor market could prompt the Fed to keep rates at current levels longer than expected.

Currency: Dollar Weakness with Short-term Gains

The dollar strengthened on the last trading day of 2025, supported by relatively strong labor market data – the number of new unemployment benefit claims fell to 199,000, below expectations. The dollar index rose by 0.27% to 98.50. Despite this one-day upward correction, the US dollar lost over 9% of its value during the year – the largest annual decline since 2017.

Pressure on the dollar persisted throughout the year: prolonged cycle of rate cuts, concerns over US public finances, and Trump administration’s trade policies led to its weakening. During this period, the euro appreciated by over 13%, the British pound by 7%, the Swiss franc by 14%, and the Swedish krona by 20% against the dollar.

The market anticipates about 50 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, although some new Federal Reserve members show caution. If the labor market improves, the Fed may keep rates stable longer than expected.

The Bank of Japan raised rates twice in 2025, but the yen practically did not change against the dollar, ending the session at 156.96. The market awaits potential intervention by Japanese authorities. Most forecasts for the coming year indicate continued dollar weakness, although some analysts suggest the downward cycle may be nearing its end.

Economy: News from the USA and the World

New Entry Ban for Seven Countries

Starting January 1, the United States will implement a travel ban for citizens of seven countries: Burkina Faso, Laos, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, and Syria. Restrictions apply to both immigration applicants and those arriving on non-immigrant visas. Documents issued on December 29 indicate that restrictions also include individuals from Venezuela and Cuba.

$12 Billion Agricultural Support Program

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced details of a $12 billion aid program. Eligible soybean producers will receive a subsidy of $30.88 per acre. The program also includes support for field crop producers (11 billion dollars) and support for economic crops and sugar beets. Payments will be available until February 28 and will be directly deposited into farmers’ bank accounts. The support amount is determined based on actual planting area in 2025, production cost data, and monthly reports on global supply and demand of agricultural products.

Venezuela’s Oil Production Drops Drastically

Under pressure from the USA, oil production in Venezuela’s Orinoco heavy oil belt fell by 25%. Export restrictions via the Caribbean Sea and military threats continue to pressure Maduro’s government. Data from the state oil company show that on December 29, production dropped to 498,131 barrels per day. Due to depletion of storage capacity, the company is shutting down some oil wells. The Orinoco belt accounts for nearly two-thirds of Venezuela’s total oil production.

Bulgaria Joins the Eurozone

The European Commission confirmed that Bulgaria will officially join the eurozone on January 1, 2026, at midnight local time. The country adopts the euro as its official currency, and the national currency will be withdrawn from circulation. Joining the eurozone has been a priority for the Bulgarian government since its accession to the EU in 2007.

Israel Bans Activities of 37 Aid Organizations

Starting January 1, the Israeli government will ban the activities of 37 foreign aid organizations in Gaza and the West Bank. According to Israeli media, these organizations did not meet the “more stringent registration requirements.” The Ministry of Diaspora Affairs justifies the decision on “security grounds” and the need to clear NGOs of employees linked to “terrorist organizations.”

China: Records in Space and Energy

Over 90 Space Launches – China’s New Record

China ended 2025 with a series of over 90 space launches – a new annual record. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation conducted 73 launches, also setting a record. Long March rockets were launched 69 times, and the Jielong-3 rocket four times, deploying over 300 satellites into orbit. This is a significant increase compared to 51 launches and over 190 payloads in 2024. The average interval between launches was about 5 days, reaching a new level of mission density and scale.

Hualong One Nuclear Power Plant in Zhangzhou Commercially Operational

On January 1, the world’s largest nuclear base, “Hualong One” – the second unit of the Zhangzhou plant – was officially commissioned. At 00:07 UTC+8, the unit successfully completed a 168-hour full-power test and was handed over for operation. This marks the completion of the first phase of the project and a significant step forward in the mass deployment of third-generation Chinese nuclear technology. The plant plans to build a total of 6 units, and after completing two units, it could supply about 20 billion kWh of clean energy annually, reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 16 million tons.

Gas Field in Southwest China Produces 50 Billion m³ Annually

China National Petroleum Corporation Southwest Oil & Gas Field Company announced that its annual natural gas production reached 50 billion m³, and the oil and gas equivalent exceeded 40 million tons – both records. This is the first gas field in southwestern China with such capacity and is important for building a production base with a capacity of 100 billion m³ in the Sichuan-Chongqing region. In 2025, annual gas production increased by 5.3 billion m³ compared to the previous year, supported by changes in the energy structure and technological innovations.

Chinese Financial Markets at the End of November

The People’s Bank of China published data for November 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.7% (66.2 pts) to 3888.6 pts, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.9% (394.1 pts) to 12,984.1 pts. The average daily trading volume on the Shanghai stock exchange was 808.05 billion yuan – a decrease of 16.0% compared to the previous month. On the Shenzhen exchange, the average daily volume reached 1,089.77 billion yuan, down 7.9% month-over-month.