2026-01-12 08:29:03

Federal Reserve data shows that the Atlanta Fed's latest forecast for Q4 2025 US real GDP growth could reach 5.1%, a figure that is quite remarkable.

A comparison reveals how exaggerated this is—last week's forecast was 2.7%, and the economist consensus is only 0.9%. The large gap reflects that growth momentum may be far beyond expectations.

If true, this would be the strongest quarterly growth since Q4 2021 (when it was 7.0%). The highest level in four years—imagine the impact this could have on global markets.

What is the main driver behind this wave of growth? Trade data provides the answer. Imports in October decreased by 3.2 month-on-month, hitting the lowest point since January 2024; meanwhile, exports increased by 2.6 month-on-month, reaching a historical high. The ebb and flow of imports and exports directly boosted the GDP figures.

But there is a point to be cautious about: the decline in imports mainly comes from volatile categories like pharmaceuticals and non-monetary gold. Once these factors stabilize, the growth momentum could reverse. In other words, the current growth rate may have hidden vulnerabilities due to insufficient underlying strength.

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TokenDustCollector

· 8h ago

5.1%? Bro, how can the data jump so much? Just earlier it was 2.7%. The surge in imported medicines and gold boosted GDP—this is just data magic. Once stabilized, the true picture will be revealed. Once again, playing tricks with trade data. Where is the real economic momentum? I trust the 0.9% consensus more.

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LuckyBlindCat

· 8h ago

5.1%？Jumping from 2.7% overnight? This data is so outrageous... Wait, can a decline in drug and gold imports really cause such a spike? Feels like a collapse is coming. It's another case of data magic—looks good but is it real? GDP data is becoming more and more esoteric... Short-term surge but long-term concerns, feels like another smoke screen. Something's off; last week it was 2.7%, and now the reversal is so quick. A decline in imports and an increase in exports can double growth? Dream on.

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OnchainDetective

· 8h ago

Wait, I need to take a closer look at the logic behind this data... 5.1%? Jumping from 2.7% to 5.1% in a week? The fluctuation range is obviously a bit outrageous. Tracking through multiple indicators reveals that the 3.2% plunge in imports is mainly due to high-volatility items like pharmaceuticals and gold. Isn't this a typical case of data distortion? After analysis and judgment, this growth momentum is likely to be fake, and once these abnormal items stabilize, it will turn around. I’ve suspected this for a long time; such quarterly adjustments always end up being exposed.

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AmateurDAOWatcher

· 8h ago

5.1%？Last week it was 2.7%. The contrast is too big... --- Wait, can the decline in drug and gold imports really support a 5.1% growth rate? Feels a bit虚假. --- If these numbers are truly implemented, the global capital markets will go炸锅, but I bet five bucks they will be revised in the end. --- The rise and fall of imports and exports boost GDP... I've heard this套路 too many times. --- Once these volatility factors stabilize, the growth rate is likely to undergo a significant correction. This is a典型的数据幻觉. --- From 2.7% to 5.1%, almost made me laugh to death. Economists' predictive models really need recalibration. --- The moment gold imports turned around, this 5.1% probably became a笑话. --- Hearing the four-year high sounds great, but I don't really believe in such脆弱的支撑因素. --- Feels like playing数字游戏 again. Key indicators point to recession, yet GDP forecasts are暴涨? --- Decline in imports comes from drugs and gold, which are the least稳定的两样. There's huge room for subsequent调整.

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AirdropDreamer

· 8h ago

5.1%？Ha, that number is indeed outrageous, feels like blowing bubbles --- The sharp decline in imports is mainly due to pharmaceuticals and gold. Can this be called growth momentum? It’s a bit虚啊 --- Wait, one week jumps from 2.7% to 5.1%. Did these forecasting agencies drink too much? --- Basically, the import and export data are short-term fluctuations. Once stabilized, we’ll know what’s really going on --- Four-year highest growth rate sounds great, but it’s based on highly volatile commodities. I don’t believe this can continue --- The Federal Reserve’s oscillating forecasts, do they really have any reference value? I’m increasingly unable to understand them --- Gold and pharmaceuticals fluctuate so much. Using these to support GDP expectations? The logic is strange --- Gotta go, wait until the data actually lands. Right now, believing anything is just being cut off at the knees

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