Crypto market weekly review (09.15~09.21): US interest rate cut cycle restarts, BTC slightly falls

The information, views, and judgments regarding the market, projects, coins, and other aspects mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

Author: 0xBrooker

BTC daily trend

policy, macro finance and economic data

On September 17, Eastern Time, at the highly anticipated FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve officially resumed the rate-cutting cycle, lowering rates by 25bp to 4.00%~4.25%, with the discount rate also reduced to 4.25%, while continuing to shrink the balance sheet (QT) at the established pace.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated: "Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, job growth has weakened, the unemployment rate has risen, inflation has rebounded and remains high." This rate cut is mainly to manage the "risk of weak job growth," balancing between high inflation and a softening labor market. Future actions depend on data and will be assessed sequentially. This means that, in its dual mandate, the Federal Reserve has officially shifted its focus to "employment."

The dot plot shows that the median at the end of 2025 has decreased by 75bp compared to the last time, indicating that most committee members agree on starting a rate cut cycle, with the points of divergence being the pace and extent of the cuts, and a minority of committee members support faster rate cuts.

Although the market had previously priced in a small amount for three interest rate cuts this year, this pricing further increased after the meeting. This led to greater fluctuations in the US dollar index during the week, but it ultimately fell first and then rose, closing at 97.665. The sell-off of long-term US Treasuries slightly increased, with yields rising by 1.35%. The NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones all rose by 2.21%, 1.22%, and 1.05%, respectively, reaching new historical highs.

Currently, the rise in US stocks is driven by the dual factors of increased risk appetite following the onset of the rate cut cycle and AI-driven performance growth. The market trend is expected to continue, but it is also constrained by inflation data. Gold rose 1.05% over the week.

cryptocurrency market

Due to the early completion of pricing and insufficient subsequent funds, BTC underperformed the NASDAQ this week, with a slight decrease of 0.03%.

This week, BTC opened at $115,314.12, closed at $115,282.27, reached a high of $117,998.17, and a low of $114,395.84, with a weekly decline of 0.03%. The trading volume remained flat, showing a narrow fluctuation trend of first rising and then falling.

Technically, BTC closed above the first upward trend line of the bull market, supported by the 60-day moving average.

In terms of coin holding structure, after increasing holdings last week, long hands have started selling 25,149 coins again this week, bringing significant upward pressure to the market.

In terms of expenditure returns, the long-hand average is above 2 times, indicating that long-handed selling has a substantial profit return, while the short-hand is around 1, showing that this group has not incurred losses from selling.

The long position floating profit is 3.16%, still having a considerable floating profit, while the short position floating profit is 1.04%, which does not pose pressure on the market.

Due to front-running trading reasons, the funds flowing into the cryptocurrency market this week have significantly decreased compared to last week. A total of $7.107 billion flowed in this week, down from $9.539 billion last week, including $889 million via the BTC Spot ETF channel, $129 million via the BTC DATs channel, $550 million via the ETH Spot ETF channel, $366 million via the ETH DATs channel, $2.544 billion via the SOL DATs channel, and $2.589 billion in stablecoins.

Another factor that creates psychological pressure on the market is the cycle rate. The period from September to December is traditionally the peak time for BTC price cycles, which may also be the reason for the continuous selling by long-term BTC holders, especially those who have held for over 7 years.

Comparison of BTC price trends after each halving

From the perspective of industrial policy, capital inflow, and macro financial cycles, it is currently the best expansion period for crypto assets. However, whether BTC and the entire Crypto can break free from the constraints of cyclical rates and form new market rules and cycles remains uncertain.

As the interest rate cut cycle restarts in the United States, whether BTC and crypto assets can rise again depends on whether the selling pressure can be fully absorbed. The market will provide an answer in the coming months.

cycle indicator

According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.25, in a rising relay period.