Ethena (ENA) is preparing to unlock nearly 3% of the supply – How will the market react?

Ethena (ENA) continues to maintain its bounce back, adding 1% on Wednesday afternoon, raising the total profit for the week to 9%. Technical signals and the derive market support the bullish trend; however, the upcoming unlock of 171 million ENA could still create significant supply pressure.

Risks from the ENA token unlock event

The short-term bounce back of Ethena this week is still being maintained, despite the fact that 40.63 million ENA (, equivalent to 0.64% of the circulating supply), was unlocked on Tuesday. This development indicates that investor confidence is gradually improving, thereby helping to mitigate the risk of an immediate sell-off.

However, a greater challenge awaits ahead: on Friday, an additional 171.88 million ENA worth approximately 119.54 million USD will be released into the market, accounting for 2.69% of the circulating supply. Of this, the core contributing team of Ethena will receive 93.75 million tokens, while the remainder will be allocated to investors — a move that could create significant supply pressure.

Unlocking schedule of ENA | Source: Tokenomist## Ethena approaches the breakout accumulation zone as bullish momentum returns

ENA continues to maintain a green color for the third consecutive session, approaching the breakout threshold on the 4-hour chart. If it surpasses the resistance level of 0.6911 USD — the upper limit of the accumulation range — ENA's bounce back is likely to be extended, with a target aimed at 0.7533 USD, a price that was established on August 23.

Reinforcing this expectation, data from CoinGlass shows that the open contract (OI) of ENA has increased by 5%, from 1.27 billion USD on Tuesday to 1.34 billion USD. The new capital of 60 million USD reflects the growing interest of investors in the ENA derivatives market.

ENA's open contract | Source: CoinglassTechnical indicators also support the bullish scenario. The RSI has risen to 62, indicating increasing buying strength and there is still ample room for growth. Meanwhile, the MACD line along with the signal line continues to maintain an upward trend, with the green histogram extending above 0, confirming stable bullish momentum and reinforcing the likelihood of a breakout.

The ENA/USDT chart on the 4-hour frame | Source: TradingViewHowever, the negative scenario still exists: if ENA falls to the 0.6109 USD area and closes below this support level, selling pressure may push the price down to 0.5122 USD — a level that was last tested on August 3.

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