BitMEX Alpha: Alt season signals are becoming clearer - ChainCatcher

Original Author: BitMEX

It’s not a meme; it’s data speaking. We assess that an early-stage altcoin season is unfolding, and the reason is simple:

• Market Structure: TOTAL3 (the total market cap of altcoins excluding BTC/ETH) is stabilizing relative to the two major mainstream coins; even without a volume breakthrough from BTC/ETH, the market breadth is also expanding.
• Leading trend direction: SOL/ETH upward, moderate funding rate, few liquidations - true buying pressure, not a squeeze.
• Catalytic factors: The US government is promoting blockchain applications, with the Department of Commerce putting official data such as GDP and PCE on the blockchain (via Chainlink/Pyth), and the fundamental revaluation of platform tokens bringing “offshore” funds back onshore.
• ETF Capital Situation: ETF still has net inflow but has明显降温; ETH-related DAT (coin stocks) market value/net asset value ratio (m/NAV) is relatively low → The attractiveness of issuance declines, which may leave more space for altcoins.

Signal 1 | Market Structure and the Resilience of TOTAL3

The trend over the past 5 days resembles the beginning of an altcoin season rather than a rotation of “only rising mainstream”. TOTAL3 did not create new lows while BTC and ETH were fluctuating; the derivatives side remains orderly: funding rates are close to neutral, and passive liquidations are limited—pointing to genuine demand driven by spot trading. For traders, the focus is clear: without waiting for BTC/ETH to reach new highs, breadth can still expand; selecting altcoins in pair trading offers better cost-effectiveness.

Signal 2 | SOL outperformed ETH, starting to rotate

The upward movement of SOL/ETH, along with a stable funding rate and no obvious signs of short squeezing, indicates genuine buying pressure from active allocation. Historically, this often precedes paired rotations in high liquidity mid-cap and functional tracks; it also offers a lower β expression: going long on SOL / going short on ETH.

Signal 3 | Major currencies are “stable, but not trending”

Source:

The fundamentals of mainstream coins remain positive, but the marginal momentum of ETH and BTC is declining: there is support during pullbacks, but a lack of follow-up buying during rallies makes it difficult to push to new highs.

Taking Ethereum coin stocks as an example, m/NAV is mostly between 1.0–1.1×, underperforming spot ETH, making it difficult to sustain the “increase in issuance + passive spot purchases” chain. Our judgment is: mainstream bottom-fishers are strong, while high-fishers are weak, and the marginal risk is more reasonable to sink to altcoins with event catalysts.

Signal 4 | Implementable Blockchain Applications in Promotion

Both policy and infrastructure have hard catalysts: The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that official series such as real GDP and PCE will be on-chain (via Chainlink, Pyth, covering Arbitrum, Avalanche, Base, etc.), providing authoritative and machine-readable data that opens new scenarios for data-driven DeFi, tokenized risk control, and event markets.

At the same time, blockchain-based applications have also gained recognition and adoption by mainstream institutions, with Numerai (an AI-driven hedge fund incentivized with $NMR) receiving a $500 million strategy capacity commitment from JPMorgan Asset Management.

Platform tokens are gaining strength in stages: OKB is boosted by adjustments in the token model, while CRO is in the spotlight due to news related to investment from the Trump family fund. These developments are not dependent on BTC/ETH reaching new highs—this is a typical characteristic of the early altcoin season.

Conclusion | Trading Framework

Current situation: mainstream order, cooling of ETF net inflows, thin DAT premium, hard catalysts bringing funds downstream.

Continue to prioritize pairs and news in strategy:

• Core position: Long SOL / Short ETH; pay attention to the rise of new coins.
• Satellite Positions: Anchored by event catalysts, gradually allocate news-driven altcoins on pullbacks; until capital flows, funding rates, or key agency indicators clearly signal a style switch.