Allianz Chief Economic Advisor: The risk of a U.S. economic recession is now "highly concerning."

According to Jin10 data on April 4, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian stated on Friday that a series of so-called reciprocal tariffs by Trump could have significant impacts on the global economy. The risk of a U.S. economic recession "has become uncomfortably high." By significantly repricing growth prospects, it can be seen that the likelihood of a U.S. recession has risen to 50%, with inflation expectations rising to 3.5%. He also warned that the market is underestimating the impact of tariffs on inflation and stated that, if lucky, the Federal Reserve (FED) would cut rates once, rather than four times, and that it would not be surprising if the FED did not cut rates at all.