Bitcoin Price Prediction: Death Cross Meets Crescent Moon, Flashing November "Reversal" Mysterious Signal

Bitcoin (BTC) traders expect a local bottom to form in mid-November, as the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) will fall below the 200-day SMA around $100,000. This death cross pattern typically indicates the formation of a local bottom. According to analysis, the average price change one month after the death cross occurs is only -3.2%, which challenges the view that a death cross reliably triggers a prolonged Bear Market.

The death cross is not the end, but rather a signal of a local bottom

(Source: Trading View)

The death cross of Bitcoin around the 100,000 USD mark may signal a local bottom rather than a crash. The expected intersection of Bitcoin's 50-day MA and 200-day MA (commonly referred to as the death cross) could occur in mid-November when it approaches 100,000 USD. Historically, this event has indicated a local bottom and does not usually represent a long-term decline.

According to market analysis, the average price change one month after a death cross occurs is only -3.2%, which challenges the view that a death cross reliably triggers a prolonged Bear Market. This data comes from a statistical analysis of all death cross events in Bitcoin's history, and the results show that death crosses are more often a lagging indicator rather than a leading indicator. In other words, when a death cross occurs, the market adjustment is often close to the end rather than just beginning.

The so-called death cross is often viewed as a negative signal, but in the history of Bitcoin, it has played more of a role as a lagging confirmation. At the same time, educational materials from Ledger indicate that it usually foreshadows capitulation (exhausted selling and reversal), rather than predicting significant trends in advance. This understanding redefines the death cross from a panic signal to an opportunity signal.

Historical Performance of Death Cross in Bitcoin Price Prediction

Average one month later fall: only -3.2% (far below market panic expectations)

Historical Rule: Usually marks the formation of a local bottom, rather than the start of a long-term Bear Market.

Surrender Signal: Death cross often appears when the selling has been exhausted, followed by a reversal.

Lagging Characteristics: It is a confirmation of adjustments that have already occurred, rather than a prediction of future trends.

Analyst Colin believes that the reasonable minimum price level for Bitcoin in this bull market cycle is around $98,000, where there is multiple support. This aligns with the 50-week MA, which has been providing support since the first quarter of 2023. This price level not only has technical support but also has multiple protections from cost basis and market psychology.

50 MA 102,800 USD, becoming the lifeline of the Bull Market

(Source: Trading View)

The 50-week MA is located near $102,800, which remains a key support level in the bull market. Data from the exchange for October 2025 shows that the 50-week MA is approximately $101,700, which is a critical level in the current bull market. Since the first quarter of 2023, the weekly closing price of Bitcoin has never fallen below the 50-week MA, a point emphasized by analyst Ted Pillows in his October article.

This record has important significance for Bitcoin price prediction. It has not fallen below the 50-week MA for more than two consecutive years, indicating that this moving average has extremely strong psychological and technical support power. Each time Bitcoin approaches this moving average, it attracts a large number of buy orders, as investors believe this is a low point in a Bull Market. This self-fulfilling belief further strengthens the support role of the 50-week MA.

Currently, the price of the MA is about $102,800, which is the threshold that Bitcoin must maintain to sustain the Bull Market. If the weekly closing price is below this support level, it may indicate a potential decline in market structure. This kind of breakdown would break a record that has stood for more than two years, and the impact on market psychology would be enormous. It could trigger a chain reaction: technical investors' stop-loss exits, trend followers turning bearish, and retail panic selling.

However, in the Bitcoin price prediction, the likelihood of holding above the 50-week MA remains high. The current price is consolidating between $105,000 and $110,000, with approximately 2-7% buffer space away from $102,800. This consolidation is seen as market consolidation rather than a market crash. As long as the weekly closing price remains above $102,800, the bull market structure still holds.

Lunar Phase Cycle Analysis Indicates First Quarter Moon Initiates Rise

(Source: X)

The observations of the lunar phase cycle have further strengthened bullish sentiment. Some traders also link the price trends of Bitcoin to the lunar phases. Analyst LP_NXT shared an analysis report indicating that when the price of Bitcoin corresponds to the lunar phase cycle, the trend patterns for 2025 can be clearly seen. The recent first quarter moon on October 29 usually corresponds to the start of an upward movement, which tends to continue until the full moon or the last quarter moon.

According to this theory, the waxing crescent moon on October 29, 2025, may correspond with an upward trend. This timing also aligns with the technical analysis perspective that mid-November could be a local bottom. Supporters believe these cyclical fluctuations stem from recurring market psychology rather than superstition. Although lunar phase analysis lacks the rigor of mature technical tools, its repeated appearance among traders highlights the diversity of strategies in the cryptocurrency market.

In November 2025, due to the alignment of lunar phases, established support levels, and MA crossover points, it becomes the focus for traders. The lunar phase cycle analysis aligns with technical signals, indicating a rebound in mid-November. This resonance of multiple signals makes November a critical turning month in Bitcoin price predictions.

Rising Wedge Warning and $170,000 Target Coexist

(Source: Trading View)

Despite the long-term signals being positive, the weekly chart of Bitcoin currently shows an ascending wedge, which is a bearish pattern characterized by converging trend lines, indicating a weakening momentum. In previous cycles, this pattern led to a fall of 15% to 35%, as observed in 2018 and 2021. This pattern suggests that as prices continue to rise and the volatility range narrows, buying pressure is weakening.

Nevertheless, the overall Bull Market structure remains intact. Since 2022, Bitcoin has continued to create higher lows and higher highs within an upward channel. Historically, the price rebound from the lower bound of the channel typically ranges between 60% and 170%. Some analysts maintain a target price of $170,000 or higher, believing this is primarily due to the strong upward trend and the lack of overbought cycle signals that typically occur at macro tops.

Colin's analysis indicates that the market is testing the patience of holders, especially for altcoin investors, as this cycle has surpassed the usual fourth-quarter peak. He noted that Bitcoin broke the norm in the last bear market, with its price once falling to a low of $15,000, below the previous cycle's high of $20,000, marking a first in Bitcoin's history. He suggests holding Bitcoin until its price reaches a new all-time high, and then, after a few weeks, using the gains from Bitcoin to shift towards other cryptocurrencies.

The current market condition features both short-term bearish technical factors and long-term bullish momentum. Whether Bitcoin can stay above the 50-week MA by the end of October 2025 will determine the direction of the bull market. Based on MA analysis and favorable lunar phases, mid-November is considered a potential window for building positions.