XRP Price Prediction: Western Union Abandons Ripple Cross-Border Payments, Can $2.60 Hold?

XRP price hovers around the key Fibonacci zone of $2.60, with analysts debating whether it will pull back to $2.50 or break through $2.65. However, the world's largest remittance company, Western Union, recently announced its choice of Solana over XRP as its payment settlement blockchain, raising doubts about whether the long-promoted use cases of Ripple can be adopted.

Western Union Chooses Solana: XRP's Largest Use Case Hit Hard

Western Union has been testing Ripple's technology for many years, even starting a pilot program using XRP for cross-border payments as early as 2015. After a decade of trials, Western Union CEO Devin McGranahan stated yesterday that they examined all aspects, “speed, cost, reliability, and ultimately one remittance company stood out: Solana Remittance Company.”

This is a significant bearish signal for XRP price predictions. If one of the oldest payment networks in the world (with a history of over 170 years) is transitioning to blockchain native, and Ripple, which has always branded itself as an institutional blockchain, has missed this critical position, then XRP holders should reconsider their loyalty.

The decision by Western Union has exposed the difficulties of XRP in terms of actual application adoption. Ripple has long positioned cross-border payments as its core narrative, claiming that XRP can provide financial institutions with faster and cheaper cross-border settlement solutions. However, after a decade of experiments and promotion, there are still very few financial institutions that have truly adopted XRP on a large scale. Western Union's clear choice of Solana this time directly questions the application prospects of XRP.

From a technical perspective, analyzing the choices of Western Union remittance, Solana indeed has advantages in certain aspects. Solana's transaction speed is faster (processing over 65,000 transactions per second), transaction costs are lower (usually less than $0.001), and its ecosystem is more active. In contrast, while XRP also possesses speed and cost advantages, its ecosystem development is relatively lagging, lacking a rich set of DeFi applications and developer community.

The impact of this event on XRP price predictions is multifaceted. In the short term, this bearish news may undermine market confidence, leading to increased selling pressure. In the medium to long term, if Ripple cannot achieve breakthroughs in real-world application adoption, the value support for XRP will primarily rely on speculative demand rather than actual usage demand.

TD sequence issues sell signal: technical warning

(Source: Trading View)

In the past three months, the TD (Tom DeMark) sequential indicator has performed very accurately in identifying XRP trend reversals, and now the indicator has issued a sell signal. The TD sequential is a momentum indicator used to identify potential trend exhaustion points. When the indicator issues a sell signal, it usually means that the current upward trend is about to end, and the price may enter a pullback phase.

This technical signal resonates with the bearish fundamentals of Western Union's choice of Solana, adding bearish factors to the XRP price prediction. The accuracy of the TD sequence over the past three months has enhanced the credibility of this signal. If historical patterns repeat, XRP may face a significant pullback in the coming days or weeks.

XRP price predictions indicate that market participants are now preparing for two possibilities: either a price drop back to the demand zone around $2.50, or a price surge above the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $2.6552. Market data shows that the XRP price has been fluctuating within the demand range of $2.56 to $2.61, which corresponds to the 38.2% to 100% Fibonacci retracement levels.

Analysts also pointed out that an ascending trend line is forming and developing towards the range of 2.63 to 2.65 USD, which indicates that bullish momentum is strengthening, potentially paving the way for a breakout. This technical divergence from the fundamentals is currently the biggest contradiction in the XRP market.

Complete Ascending Channel: 12% rise directly targeting 3.32 USD

(Source: Trading View)

Despite the bearish news from Western Union and the sell signal from the TD sequence, the XRP/USD 4-hour chart shows a clear ascending channel. Since the significant rebound from the crash bottom around $2.15 on October 11th, XRP has been steadily rising along this bullish structure.

Recently, the price trend is exhibiting an ascending wedge pattern near the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which usually indicates that although the upward trend is still maintained, the momentum is weakening. The RSI indicator is at 60.39, confirming this, suggesting that the price is in a neutral to bullish zone but has not yet become overbought. If buying pressure increases, there is still room for further upward movement.

If XRP can convert resistance into support, it may return to the level of $3.3245, which implies a potential increase of 12.27% from the current level. This target price is based on the extension of the upper boundary of the ascending channel, supported by technical analysis.

XRP Price Prediction Key Technical Levels:

Current Price: Around 2.60 USD

Key Support Zone: 2.56-2.61 USD (Fibonacci 38.2%-100%)

Pullback Target: $2.50 (Demand Zone)

Breakthrough Resistance: 2.6552 USD (Fibonacci 78.6%)

Ascending Channel Target: 3.3245 USD (Potential Increase of 12.27%)

RSI Level: 60.39 (Neutral to Bullish, Not Overbought)

From a technical structural perspective, as long as XRP can hold the lower boundary support at 2.56 USD, the ascending channel will remain intact. Once it breaks through the key resistance level at 2.6552 USD, the upward path towards 3.32 USD will be opened. However, if it falls below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, the technical structure will be damaged, potentially triggering a deeper pullback.

Dual Scenario Path: The Game of Technical and Fundamental Analysis

Current XRP price predictions show a typical dual-scenario game. The technical aspect displays a complete bullish structure, with an upward channel, neutral RSI, and an emerging upward trendline all supporting further increases. However, the fundamentals present significant bearish signals: Western Union opting for Solana and the TD sequence issuing sell signals, which may suppress price performance.

Bullish Scenario: Breakthrough 2.65 USD Surge to 3.32

If XRP successfully breaks through the Fibonacci 78.6% level of 2.6552 USD, combined with increased trading volume and an RSI break above 65, it will confirm the continuation of the bullish trend. In this scenario, the target of the ascending channel at 3.3245 USD will become a reasonable expectation, representing an upside potential of about 12% from the current price. The catalyst for the breakout may come from Ripple announcing new institutional partnerships or progress in the approval of the XRP spot ETF.

Bearish Scenario: Break below 2.56 to test 2.50 support

If the negative factors for Western Union's choice of Solana continue to ferment, combined with the TD sequence sell signal, XRP may break below the lower boundary of the demand zone at 2.56 USD. In this scenario, the next support level is around 2.50 USD, representing a decline of about 4%. In a more extreme situation, if 2.50 USD is also lost, it may test the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 2.30 USD.