Actually S3 has already started, and the further this Middle East war drags on, the smaller its impact on the crypto sector will become. The Russia-Ukraine war is a cautionary tale, but the nature is different - the former is about resource plundering, the latter is about invaded survival space. Short-term impacts are inevitable, after all the crypto community always moves at the slightest rumor.

Given America's track record, it's impossible for them to get bogged down in prolonged warfare. The longer it drags, the more credibility the global hegemon loses. Once objectives are achieved, they'll disengage and open up the next battlefield. Despite Trump's daily verbal barrage nowadays, if it really comes to action, Iran won't be afraid of him either.