Daily Market Analysis——BTC (Weekend Detailed Version)

Oscillating market trends always tend to make traders lower their guard, but as time continues, after the oscillation structure approaches its end, it often delivers an unexpected painful blow to traders who don't respect the trend.

To prevent this, you only need to clarify the distinction between trends and tendencies in "going against the current."

From the daily chart perspective, the price is on the bearish side within a bearish trend. All current price fluctuations are contained within the upper and lower bands of the second downtrend consolidation on the daily level. Any rallies within this consolidation belong to counter-trend directional rallies. The range may have extension segments, but it won't directly change the downward trend. Not chasing rallies is basic practice.

Key focus: beware of sharp declines triggered when price reaches the current upper band area and after touching the main force control line at 75180 (this sharp decline is difficult to observe in advance on the daily chart; pay close attention to layered breakdowns after divergence forms on the 15-minute level).

From 4H to 12H perspective, within the consolidation, multiple timeframes show varying degrees of recovery against MA30, and even small cycle moving averages show some convergence. However, due to lack of space opened by large bullish candles, the support strength of these moving averages and corresponding trading space are insufficient. Even if large bullish candles appear, the upper trend suppression and divergence produced after the rally at this level, determine that based on the main force control line as a reference point, the height gained is limited.

Therefore, from this angle, the mid-term lower-risk approach is to wait for price to reach the control line, then sequentially make pullback plays at this level's MA30 lows.

From the 1H and lower levels, after the morning rally, the bullish alignment in the moving average system remains intact, with local opportunities for further pushes. However, after pushing higher, beware of top divergence forming on the 15-minute level.

Summary: The current market is still a game between large-timeframe trend suppression and small-timeframe support. Without question, small-timeframe support must yield to large-timeframe suppression. What we can do is, after small timeframes form attack structures, trade the limited space between reaching large-timeframe suppression, with longs focused on quick entry and quick exit. Don't overthink the bigger picture.

Aggressive Entry: Current price 71740-71520, stop loss 71400 (1H body), take profit when favorable.

Short-term Support: 69615～69198, Second Support: 60198～58290
Short-term Resistance: 72885～73420, Second Resistance: 75180～76290
Chart Watching Entry Reference Points: 70980、68230、65940, independent levels, don't place orders in advance. #BTC