# MVRV

Many of the major events that are expected to happen will shape the price of the market in the short term, including the Bitcoin halving, some countries are preparing to approve spot bitcoin ETFs, etc., Bitwise believes that the adoption of cryptocurrencies is now only about 1% complete, and there are still 99% to be developed, suggesting that the cryptocurrency market has huge room for growth. Even if the average allocation of global wealth managers is only 1%, this could lead to an inflow of about $1 trillion into Bitcoin. Common on-chain indicators suggest that we are still in the early sta

The CEO of CryptoQuant released the Bitcoin halving chart, on which the relationship between the Bitcoin halving cycle and the price can be seen very clearly, the three stages are: speculation, disillusionment (down), The accumulation period (recovery period), we are still in the accumulation period, but it will be over in just over two weeks, when the Bitcoin halving will take place (expected on April 20), that is, we will go through the initial hype period from the point of origin, during which the price of Bitcoin tends to rise sharply, and the price performance after each halving in histor

Long-term and short-term holders of Bitcoin did not sell their bitcoins when the price rose sharply, and short-term holders sold bitcoins in large quantities, but in the end the price of bitcoin did not fall sharply, but was still in an upward trend. The bitcoins sold by short-term holders appear to be bought by long-term holders, who take advantage of short-term volatility to accumulate more bitcoins. Looking at the MVRV indicator, we see that this value is now at a critical level, and when the MVRV exceeds 2, it usually means that long-term holders may consider selling for profit.
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In the first cycle (from the second half of 2012 to 2016), the price of bitcoin rose sharply within 132 days after the halving, the landmark event was April 9, 2013, when the price increase behavior was interpreted as a reaction to scarcity and speculation, and then it entered the disillusionment phase, which is the second phase of the cycle, when the price volatility becomes violent, usually a peak is followed by a significant decline, the market may overheat at this stage, and then the price falls sharply for various reasons. Finally, there is the accumulation stage, which will be out of thi

For this wave of bitcoin decline, it is normal for the price to fluctuate between $3,000 and $5,000 in a bull market, and even if the price crashes, the short-term theoretical lowest point will only fall around $58,000, and every large price drop is still an opportunity. Judging from the MVRV, there is still the possibility of bitcoin doubling, and it is still far from the top. There is also the Bitcoin price and its realized market capitalization, the ratio chart of the four different age groups, especially the orange block (which represents the 2-3 year group), which now seems to be halfway

We are in the orange zone in the chart, which means that the price of Bitcoin is above the cost price for long-term holders, but Bitcoin has not yet made a new all-time high, and if the price of Bitcoin exceeds $69,000, we will enter the green zone. Finally, the MVRV indicator, when the MVRV is in the lower green zone, it is the best Bitcoin accumulation area, and at present we are far from the best accumulation zone, with the future Bitcoin halving, there will be a new all-time high, and the indicator will start to approach the upper red zone, which means that the new cycle has peaked.
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