Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: Crypto Regulatory Game, Market Winter Is Coming?

A. Market View

1. Macro liquidity

Currency liquidity has tightened. The market expects the Fed to choose to skip a rate hike at its June meeting, but leans towards a rate hike in July based on upcoming inflation data. At the same time by the end of 2023, the U.S. government will need to borrow 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars in short-term treasury bills in the next 4 months with a net issuance of 85 billion U.S. dollars in treasury bills, except for the 2008 financial crisis and 2020 is the largest increase in history outside of the new crown pandemic. The sheer size of the new issuance could push up yields on government bonds, sucking cash out of bank deposits. Not afraid of the weekly rebound of the U.S. dollar index, the U.S. stock Nasdaq index continued to hit new highs. But the performance of the encrypted market may more follow the market liquidity.

Second, the whole market

Market value top; 100; increase list:

The market broke down this week, with altcoins falling across the board. The United States; SEC; against; Binance; and; Market hotspots mainly revolve around short-squeezed rising strong Zhuang stocks.

1. BNB: United States; SEC; seeking to freeze; BN US; assets, BN US; delisting many trading pairs. Although the lending platform;XVS;has the possibility of liquidating BNB;but the previous proposal can only be liquidated by the;BNB;team itself.
2. PENDLE: ecological project; EQB; initiation; Pendle War, similar to the previous stable currency; Curve War. EQB; is a similar; CVX; income aggregator, ve; model lock; PENLLE.
3. VELO: Yes; OP; the head of the chain; dex; exchange, using the; ve; 33; model. The recent v2 upgrade introduced the “Uniswap” module. At the same time, the ;OP;was carried out on 6;Month;6;Bedrock;upgraded and lowered the ;40%;gas;fee.

3. BTC; Quotes

1;) Data on the chain

BTC; long-term holders continue diamond hands. 5; more months; BTC; and; ETH; are moving in the direction of long-term holding, BTC; short-term turnover rate also has a significant weakening trend. Holding positions in “6-12” months; “BTC” is the largest increase in the month. This part of the chips has experienced the “LUNA” and “FTX” events in a row. The number of chips that may lose money will not be small, but this part of users I didn’t choose to reduce my holdings and leave the market, but continued to hold them for a longer period of time. Most of them should be investors with little financial pressure.

The overall stable currency continues to decline, especially the accelerated departure of US funds, which gradually weakens the purchasing power of the market. Among them, the scale of the stable currency “USDT” hit a record high, and its market share rose from last year’s low of “47%” to “66%;”. Given that U.S. interest rates are now over 5%; interest-free stablecoins have become less attractive, especially for investors with access to U.S. capital markets.

The long-term trend indicator; MVRV-ZScore; based on the total market cost, reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the index is greater than; 6;, it is the top interval; when the index is less than; 2;, it is the bottom interval. MVRV; fell below the key level; 1;, and holders were generally in the red. The current indicator is “0.45”, entering the recovery phase.

2;) Futures Quotes

Futures funding rate: The rate is neutral this week, and the market sentiment is stable. Fee rate: 0.05-0.1%;, there are more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; fee rate -0.1-0%;, more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market.

Futures open interest: The total open interest decreased this week, and the main funds in the market retreated.

Futures long-short ratio: ;1.8;. Retail investors are in a strong mood to buy bottoms. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, and above 2.0 is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.

3;) Spot Quotes

This week; BTC; began to adjust the weekly level, and it is expected to trend downward in the next few months. Monthly trading volumes on several major centralized exchanges dried up, dropping to their lowest levels since 2020. However, considering the Fed’s interest rate cut half a year later, and the “BTC” halving cycle in the first half of next year, this may be the last big drop before the bull market, and it is recommended to buy on dips.

B. Market Data

1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain

2. Proportion of public chains; TVL;

This week; TVL; total volume fell; 1.5; b, a drop of; 3.1%;. This week; ETH; chain; TVL; proportion continued to rise; 0.6%;, to; 58.3%;.

Judging from the data of the past seven days, the receipt of; SEC; the impact of encryption supervision, BSC; chain; TVL; a sharp drop; 11.42%;. And all the core public chains of the Ethereum second-tier network; TVL; all fell, Arbitrum; down; 4.45%;, Optimism; ;.

3. The lock-up amount of each chain agreement

1;) ETH; lock-up amount

2;) BSC; lock-up volume status

3;) Tron; lock-up amount

4;) Avalanche; lock-up amount

5;）Polygon; lock-up amount

6;）Arbitrum;Lockup Amount

7;) Optimism; lock-up amount

4. ETH Gas fee; historical situation

The current transfer fee on the chain is about; 1.2; USD, Uniswap; the transaction fee is about; 10.88; USD, Opensea; the transaction fee is about; 4.22; USD. Compared with last week, the “gas” fee continued to drop, and the overall point remained at the lowest point.

Layer; 2; upper; deposit; costs are as follows: arbitrum 5.37; $, Optimisim 8.89; $, Polygon 8.8; $, ZkSync 8.45;

Five, NFT; market data changes

**1;) NFT-500; Index: **

**2;) NFT; Market conditions: **

**3;) NFT; trading market share: **

4;) NFT; Buyer Analysis:

5;) Number of active projects:

From the total “volume” of the market, this week has a slight decline compared to last week, but there is still a rebound compared to the continuous trough of the previous few weeks. NFT; market share; blur; occupies about; 82.3%;, up from last week; 11.3%;. Opensea; accounted for approximately; 11.2%;, compared to last week fell; 6%;.

From the perspective of the number of active projects, it has fluctuated and declined in the past two months, especially the projects whose volume is above 10;eth; it can be seen that the recent “NFT” market still lacks confidence. However, in the past two weeks, the number of active projects at each “level” has rebounded.

From the analysis of “NFT” buyers, this week began to rebound quickly after experiencing a rapid decline, but in the long run, it still did not break through the bottom range, but returned to the level at the same time last week.

From the overview of the “NFT” market, blue chip “NFT” floor prices generally rose this week, Azuki; up; 11%;, MAYC; up; 1.3%;, BAYC; up; 0.2%;, Milady; %;.

Six, the latest financing situation of the project

About; Foresight Ventures

Foresight Ventures bets on the innovation process of cryptocurrency in the next few decades, and manages multiple funds under its management: VC; fund, secondary active management fund, multi-strategy; FOF, special purpose; S; fund “Foresight Secondary Fund l”, total assets The scale of management exceeds; 4; million US dollars. Foresight Ventures adheres to the concept of “Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term”, and provides extensive support for projects through strong ecological forces. Its team comes from senior personnel from top financial and technology companies including Sequoia China, CICC, Google, Bitmain, etc.

**Disclaimer: Foresight Ventures; all articles are not intended as investment advice. Investment is risky, please assess your personal risk tolerance and make investment decisions prudently. **