Bernstein: Forecasts the market size in 2030 to reach over 1 trillion dollars! Sports is just the entry point; macroeconomics and politics are the ultimate game.

Wall Street’s top research firm Bernstein recently released a report, highly optimistic about the future explosive growth of the “prediction markets.” Analysts estimate that, as regulation gradually clarifies and global liquidity integrates, the trading volume in this sector will surpass $1 trillion annually by 2030. The report specifically emphasizes that “sports betting is just the gateway,” with future huge business opportunities lying in institutional hedging needs related to macroeconomic and political events.
(Background: CFTC Chair Selig strongly states: “Only we can regulate prediction markets,” jurisdiction belongs to the federal government, and has sued three states)
(Additional background: U.S. judge blocks Arizona’s criminal charges against Kalshi for “illegal gambling,” Trump administration supports prediction markets)

Table of Contents

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• Rapid Data Growth: Impact of $1 Trillion by 2030
• Sports is just the beginning; macro and politics are the ultimate goal
• Robinhood and Coinbase will see “asymmetric upside”

Prediction markets are undergoing a glamorous transformation from “niche crypto experiments” to “mainstream financial infrastructure.”

According to the latest client report from Bernstein (Bernstein Research), as prediction markets expand into broad information sectors such as sports, economics, politics, and culture, the industry is projected to reach an astonishing $1 trillion annual trading volume by 2030.

Rapid Data Growth: Impact of $1 Trillion by 2030

Led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein’s research team first reviewed the recent explosive growth of prediction markets. In 2025, due to liquidity shifting from the U.S. election cycle to sports, cryptocurrencies, and macro political contracts, prediction markets generated about $51 billion in trading volume, tripling year-over-year.

By 2026, this momentum has become even stronger. So far this year, the two major platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have combined to reach $60 billion in trading volume. Analysts are optimistic, estimating that the full-year trading volume in 2026 will reach $240 billion, maintaining an 80% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through the end of 2030.

In terms of revenue, prediction markets are also experiencing a qualitative shift. Recently, Polymarket eliminated its zero-fee model, with its recurring annual revenue (ARR) reaching $420 million. Bernstein forecasts that the overall industry’s annual recurring revenue will jump from $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026, and climb to approximately $10.8 billion by the end of 2030.

Sports is just the beginning; macro and politics are the ultimate goal

Currently, sports-related contracts account for about 62% of prediction market trading volume, mainly due to structural limitations of traditional online sports betting platforms and fragmented state regulations. However, Bernstein analysts emphasize the core view of future sector rotation in prediction markets:

“Sports is the entry point, not the endgame.”

They expect that by 2030, the share of sports will decline to around 31%. Replacing it will be the rise of cryptocurrency, macroeconomic, political, and commercial contracts. Analysts note:

“We anticipate developing an ‘institutional market’ centered around economic, commercial, and political contracts. Investors will seek more direct exposure to specific events, and companies and insurers will generate strong hedging demand for particular risks.”

On the regulatory front, although recent state-level scrutiny of sports betting contracts has increased, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has explicitly claimed its “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets. This federal-level regulatory clarity, combined with blockchain tokenization bringing global liquidity, will be a key driver for institutional capital inflows.

Robinhood and Coinbase will see “asymmetric upside”

In the gold rush, those selling shovels often make the most money. Bernstein points out that retail broker Robinhood and cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase have become the most important “distribution layers” for prediction markets.

Especially Robinhood, whose prediction market hub driven by Kalshi has reached about $350M in ARR within less than 12 months of launch. Analysts estimate Robinhood’s prediction market revenue will surge from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, a 286% increase, accounting for 17% of its total trading revenue in 2026.

The report concludes that 2026 will be a rich year for prediction market catalysts, including the FIFA World Cup in summer and the U.S. midterm elections in the second half. Driven by the explosive growth of prediction markets and the broad recovery of cryptocurrencies, Bernstein assigns “outperform” ratings to Robinhood (target price $130) and Coinbase (target price $330), implying significant asymmetric upside potential for their stock prices.