#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

Summary of market trends from yesterday to this morning — why did Bitcoin drop alone?

Last night, Bitcoin's market staged a sharp rise and fall, with intense volatility. During the early trading session, Bitcoin's price quickly followed the previous day's upward momentum, rising nearly 4% at one point, reaching a high of $76k. It then rapidly pulled back, currently oscillating around $74k, down more than $2,000 from the intraday high, with a daily fluctuation of over 3%. This volatility far exceeds recent average levels. On the news front, Trump claimed that the Iran conflict is “basically over,” causing global markets to rise in response. U.S. stocks, major Chinese markets, and gold markets all experienced “rising voices.” So why did only Bitcoin fluctuate downward?

Bull-Bear Battle: The Clash Between Optimistic Expectations and Real-World Pressures

From a bullish perspective, there are some potential supports in the recent market. First, Bitcoin spot ETF capital inflows are strong. After recording a net inflow of $22.3 million last week, on Monday, there was another net inflow of $471.3 million. The continuous inflow of institutional funds indicates long-term confidence among institutional investors in Bitcoin and provides some buying support for the market. Second, the market is optimistic about new U.S. cryptocurrency legislation. The “CLARITY Act,” scheduled for a vote in late April, if passed, would offer clearer regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies, potentially attracting more compliant capital into the space. This expectation has become a key driver for bullish traders to push prices higher.

However, bearish forces should not be underestimated. First, technical pressures remain evident. Since Bitcoin hit its all-time high in October last year, it has retraced over 52%. Current price movements are compared by technical analysts to a “bearish flag” pattern, which is often seen as a prelude to a new downward wave. Although prices surged today, they did not effectively break through key resistance levels, and the weak technical pattern continues to suppress prices. Second, large holders are increasingly inclined to sell. According to CryptoQuant’s “Exchange Whale Ratio” indicator, it has risen from 0.34 on January 10 to 0.79 on March 28, indicating that large holders are accelerating Bitcoin transfers to exchanges. Gradual profit-taking or position adjustments by whales could bring potential selling pressure to the market.

War Narrative Gradually Ends, Market Returns to Technical Analysis

Recently, news about the US-Iran conflict has been fluctuating, but based on the close cooperation between both sides, the conflict is likely nearing its end. The market has shifted back from war narratives to normal trading conditions. Before the conflict, Bitcoin was already in a bear market decline. From a technical perspective, the current trend remains within a weekly five-wave downward structure. The key resistance zone is around $76,000–$77,500. When prices reach this resistance, a pullback is natural. Next, close attention should be paid to support levels at $73,000 and the psychological $70,000 mark.