sometimes I forget how down bad crypto is.

other risk assets had their moment, while crypto dumped. AI is the main narrative, the "cRyPto PrEsIdEnT" narrative obviously didnt pan out, 10/10, 2028 doesn't look that great either.
if you did well as a crypto native, I do thing that is a massive achievement.
I've been through 2022, and tbh, at the bottom, when FTX collapsed, it was bad, but i dont think it was this grim. at least you had things to hope for, and the future looked a little bit brighter.
maybe i was more naive at the time, or not in the industry as much as i am today, so that might play a role into the weight i give to how bad things were vs now.
but right now you literally have nothing to hope for other than a few clear winners that i dont even need to mention. everything else is still the same vaporware extraction machines that were always there. is there ever going to be innovation that is meant to help people or at least facilitate the current financial infrastructure? tbh idk, i just dont see it now.
is this a bottom signal? well, maybe. again, i just dont see it. also crypto has become a high political target due to the grifting from a single crime family over the last year. if one side loses in 2028, oh well, what do you think would cause the most damage to said family?
so, all in all, im not very bullish medium-term to long-term. perhaps with the lesson of hyperliquid's success, there's going to be similar innovations from legitimate founders in the future, that will help out clean up the industry. all it takes is a few that stand off to drive again investment not only monetary but also of human capital. hard to see that now, given AI is the hot thing and everyone wants to build there.
who knows the intersection between agent and crypto might be the bridge in which good innovation arises. but that implies a lot of things i am not smart enough to make a clear judgement on.
long systems, flat discretionary bets.
at least for now.