Mu Yao 4.14 Gold Morning Review

Guided by the hawkish policies of the Federal Reserve, with March inflation rebounding and the FOMC minutes continuously tightening market expectations for rate cuts, the first rate cut has been postponed to after September, and the full-year rate cut expectation has been reduced to once!

The US dollar and US Treasury yields are rising in tandem, increasing the cost of holding gold. Coupled with ETF fund outflows, overall pressure is evident; the geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to weaken the boost to gold prices, as safe-haven funds favor crude oil. After a recovery in yesterday’s trading, negative sentiment has been largely digested. This Wednesday, US CPI data will be a key turning point; the strength or weakness of the data will directly determine whether gold can break through 4800 or fall below 4700.

From a technical perspective, the daily gold price has broken below the short-term moving averages, with MACD forming a death cross and RSI showing weak momentum, indicating a bearish dominance; the 4-hour cycle remains within a narrow range of 4700-4780, with prices approaching the end of the range, about to choose a direction. Key intraday resistance levels are at 4780 and 4800, with main support at 4700 and the core support zone at 4650-4630.

Strategy suggestions:
- Morning gold is oscillating with a bearish bias, mainly aiming for high short positions.
- Enter short positions gradually around 4770-4780.
- Targets are sequentially set at 4730 and the 4700 threshold.

Reminder:
The above analysis is Mu Yao’s personal view. Markets are ever-changing; the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!