Good news! The US-Iran talks have brought the first positive signal, but be careful, Bitcoin is about to face a major crisis! Let’s take a look.

1. First, regarding the US-Iran talks, just now the US agreed to unfreeze Iran’s overseas assets, which is a very good sign of concession. Shuchun believes there is a very high probability of an eventual agreement! But, it seems Bitcoin has encountered some trouble...?
2. As shown in the chart, Bitcoin is now approaching a major trendline resistance, roughly around 75k. Once it starts to pull back from here, the correction could be quite large, possibly marking the end of this rebound. After all, Bitcoin has been consolidating for over two months since dropping to 60k in early February, and time is running out for Bitcoin.
3. The last sharp crash was triggered before the January Bitcoin fake breakout above 98,000. If this time also sees a fake breakout, for example, if the talks lead to a spike to 77k, be cautious— it might not be a breakout but a guillotine. Even if it genuinely breaks out and rises, it will likely pull back when touching the nearby resistance zone, which is normal for a small profit.
4. So, going long on Bitcoin is fine, but do it early. We started buying on dips around 70k, and most of the profits have already been taken. When the price exceeds 74k, the risk-reward ratio becomes poor, and the risk increases. Even buying on dips carries risks. So cherish this last safe period. If the pullback reaches 71,500–72k, I will consider adding another position. Beyond that, be cautious.
5. Additionally, the big loser ZEC is very close to our short target. The ideal short price is 415, but I think starting to short at 400 is also okay. After such a big rally in the short term, there’s a lot of room for a correction later.
6. As for oil, it’s dropping again, and it looks like it’s not going to make it. Our short at 115 can be exited on dips. As for Bitcoin long positions, we’ve gained quite a bit these days. After the ceasefire, we bought on dips multiple times and have already reached 73k. Congratulations to everyone!