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I wonder why, while everyone is waiting for the last-minute US inflation data on Friday, the Bitcoin market remains so calm? Due to the Iran war and energy shocks, the March CPI is expected to rise to 3.4%, yet Bitcoin traders are only pricing in a 2.5% move. It seems the market doesn't see this news as a big deal.
Meanwhile, volatility indicators have dropped to their lowest levels in four months. The BVIV index has fallen to 46.5%, meaning the market was expecting a minimum daily move of 2.9%. Normally, this would be around 3.4%. The Bitcoin price is currently at $72.86k, but traders are not expecting a significant directional move even after the Friday US inflation last-minute announcement.
However, experts say this calm could be misleading. Inflation data will influence the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts, which could directly impact Bitcoin. We will see what happens on Friday — either the market is right and this is just noise, or the US inflation last-minute data will trigger a more significant move than expected.