Black Friday has arrived, and the market is holding its breath, waiting for two major bombs to drop — tonight’s CPI data release and tomorrow morning’s US-Iran talks outcome. The bulls and bears have already been pushed to the edge of a cliff.

Currently, Bitcoin has been continuing to trade within a tight range around 720, with the 4-hour Bollinger Bands fully contracted. The stalemate between bulls and bears has reached its limit, and a violent reversal is right around the corner.
Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the March CPI data — the first inflation report that fully incorporates the impact of the Iran conflict and the surge in oil prices.
Inflation data has always been an asymmetric blow to crypto assets: if the data is mild, expectations for rate cuts will be rekindled; if the data runs too hot, the expectation that high interest rates will stay elevated for longer will be completely cemented.
And tomorrow morning’s first round of US-Iran talks is also hiding the risk of a sudden table flip at any moment.
The White House has already made it clear that it cannot accept Iran’s precondition of “immediately and permanently lifting energy sanctions.” On the first day of the ceasefire taking effect, Israel carried out the largest-scale airstrikes since this round of conflict began; Iran then immediately announced that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz again, forcing multiple oil tankers to turn back, with the geopolitical situation shrouded in fog.
The most dangerous scenario has already surfaced: CPI above expectations + talks breaking down — a double shock.
Once rate-cut expectations are completely dashed and geopolitical risks escalate across the board, Bitcoin will move straight into a deeper drop, testing 66 or even lower levels.
Ordinary people panic and cut losses out of uncertainty, fearing losses from liquidation,
while me, precisely in the most extreme uncertainty, pinpoint the turning point and lock in opportunities.
This is the fundamental difference between panicked “grass” investors and clear-headed planners