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BREAKING: DATA MACRO US: PCE & GDP.
Latest data has been released, but honestly it hasn't given the market a clear picture at this time.
Inflation (PCE):
• Core PCE MoM: 0.4% (above forecast 0.2%) → still hot.
• Core PCE YoY: 3% (slightly down from 3.1%).
• PCE MoM: 0.4% (up from previous).
• PCE YoY: 2.8% (stagnant).
Basically: inflation hasn't decreased significantly, still "holding" for The Fed.
GDP (Q4 Final):
0.5% (worse than estimate 1.4%).
Growth appears to be weakening, but this is still the effect of yesterday's shutdown.
To help you understand:
• Inflation: not yet tame.
• Economy: starting to slow down.
• Data: still "old" (Feb & Q4).
What really matters:
March & April data (PCE + Q1 GDP).
That will determine the next direction.
Takeaway: there are no strong signals yet.
The market is still waiting for fresh data + geopolitical developments.
Stick to the actual plan.
Stay safe and don't be overconfident.