I just noticed something quite interesting on Polymarket — the probability of the US military intervening in Iran before 4/30 has skyrocketed to 96.5%, an 11% increase in just the past 24 hours. What has caused the market to surge like this?

According to Al Jazeera, a US government official has confirmed that the second crew from the downed F-15E has been rescued. However, the situation remains tense because the rescue team must successfully evacuate from Iranian territory to be considered completely safe.

Looking at Polymarket’s rules, the market will be considered "yes" if US personnel are actually operating on Iranian soil before the deadline (Eastern Time). Special forces are included, but intelligence personnel are not. Flying over airspace or territorial waters does not count.

What’s interesting is that this market prediction is reflecting real investor concern. When the probability rises like this, it’s not just a number — it shows that people are increasingly pricing in geopolitical risk. Of course, predictions on platforms like Polymarket can always change rapidly depending on how the situation develops.