The Federal Reserve will release the meeting minutes tonight: The battle over interest rate cut expectations in the crypto market enters the decisive stage.

In the early hours of April 9 Beijing time, the U.S. Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the March 17–18 FOMC monetary policy meeting. This is the first time since the March rate-decision statement and the Summary of Economic Projections were released that the market has received a complete record of officials’ discussions in detail, and it is widely viewed as the most important policy-signal window before the next FOMC meeting at the end of April.

Since the Iran war began on February 28, one-fifth of global oil shipments have been disrupted. WTI crude prices once pushed close to $117, and the U.S. gasoline average rose nearly 25% within two weeks, sharply complicating the inflation outlook. At the March meeting, the Federal funds target range was kept unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, pausing rate cuts for the second consecutive time, but the median in the Summary of Economic Projections still suggested one cut in 2026 and another cut in 2027. The focus of market participants has shifted from “when will rate cuts happen” to “will rate cuts still be possible.” Tonight’s released minutes will create another round of macro pricing games in the crypto market.

Why the March FOMC meeting minutes have become the market’s main focus tonight

There is no uncertainty about the interest-rate decision itself—the March decision to hold rates steady is priced in at almost 100%. The value of the minutes lies in providing the “decision-making process.” Compared with the statement’s general wording—“developments in the Middle East situation have an uncertain impact on the U.S. economy”—the minutes will detail how much officials disagree on the inflation outlook, the impact of geopolitical shocks, and economic data. In advance of the meeting, Wall Street Journal reporter Timiraos pointed out that the key takeaway from this meeting is not the rate decision itself, but how the Federal Reserve will send signals to the market about the policy path in the coming months. If the wording or released forecast data conveys a signal that “the rate-cutting cycle may have ended,” it would directly hit global rate expectations and the pricing of risk assets. The minutes are the key vehicle for judging the strength of this signal.

The wording of inflation in the minutes will release the most critical signal

Inflation is the most important dimension to watch in the minutes. At the March meeting, the median forecast for full-year 2026 PCE was raised sharply from 2.4% to 2.7%, and core PCE was raised from 2.5% to 2.7%, reflecting that the energy shock has been incorporated into the baseline forecast framework. Powell, at the press conference, clearly warned that if inflation lacks substantial progress, the Federal Reserve will not cut rates. The meeting did discuss scenarios for the next steps that could involve rate hikes, but “most participants do not think this is the baseline.” The minutes will disclose which officials support keeping the option of rate hikes, as well as officials’ disagreement over whether the energy shock is “temporary” or “persistent.” If the minutes show that more officials tend to view high inflation as a persistent risk, market expectations for the number of rate cuts over the year could be compressed further from 1–2 cuts to zero, which would directly suppress crypto assets’ liquidity expectations. Conversely, if the minutes show that inflation concerns are concentrated on short-term supply shocks while the medium-term anchor remains solid, the pressure on rate-cut expectations would ease.

The economic assessment of the Middle East war will reveal the Fed’s deeper concerns

The Iran war is the biggest external variable for this meeting, and also the core incremental information that makes the minutes different from all previous meetings. In the statement, the Federal Reserve unusually directly pointed to “the uncertain impact of the Middle East situation on the U.S. economy,” indicating that policymakers are weighing two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which the conflict is brief and oil prices fall quickly; and a destructive scenario in which confrontation lasts long, supply disruptions persist, and both inflation and growth deteriorate. The minutes will disclose officials’ subjective judgments about the probabilities of the two scenarios, as well as sensitivity analysis to the duration of disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. A Dallas Fed report previously stated that if the Iran war leads to long-term disruption of oil trade, the U.S. inflation rate could rise to above 4% by year-end. If the minutes show that most officials tend to overestimate the probability of the destructive scenario, the market will be forced to reprice a more prolonged tightening cycle—an outcome that would have a systematic impact on the crypto market’s valuation center of gravity.

How officials’ disagreements reshape the crypto market’s expected rate-cut path

The degree of internal disagreement in the minutes directly determines the pricing flexibility of the market regarding the future interest-rate path. At the March voting stage, the overall tilt was slightly more hawkish than expected. The market originally expected that multiple board members would vote against, but in the end only one person, from Milan, dissented and requested a 25-basis-point cut. The distribution of the Summary of Economic Projections became noticeably more hawkish compared with last December: the number of officials who predicted no rate cuts this year increased from 4 to 7; 7 officials predicted 1 cut. Powell disclosed that among them, 4 to 5 officials adjusted from originally expecting 2 cuts to expecting only 1 cut. The minutes may carry more subtle signals: which officials, under upward pressure on inflation, shifted from dovish to hawkish? Will any officials, for the first time, explicitly list “rate hikes” in the baseline scenario? If the minutes show that the reduction in dissenting votes is not simply consensus convergence, but rather an intensification of “watch-and-wait consensus,” the uncertainty premium about the subsequent policy path in the market would rise further. For the crypto market, the expectation of the number of rate cuts compressed from 2 to 1 has already been priced in. Further compression to zero cuts, or the appearance of discussions about rate hikes, would trigger a repricing of risk assets.

The structural fragility of the crypto market in the current macro window

The crypto market is currently in a fragile phase under pressure from both tightening liquidity and geopolitical risks. According to Gate market data, as of April 8, 2026, after a strong breakout in the early hours, BTC has been locked in fierce competition around the $70,000 level, with the intraday high reaching $72,000. However, there are clear structural risks in the market: a rebound driven by derivatives with a lack of spot capital. Over 24 hours, short liquidations totaled $431 million, but in the same day BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $141.94 million, showing a divergence of “prices up, institutions out.” The Fear and Greed Index rose from 11 to 17, but it is still in an extreme fear range, covering the market for the 20th consecutive day. This structure implies that once the minutes release a hawkish signal beyond market expectations, the rebound driven by short liquidations faces a rapid reversal risk. Even if the minutes are dovish, in the absence of sustained ETF inflows, the sustainability of an upside breakout remains questionable. The divergence between derivatives-driven price action and institutional fund outflows is the key market contradiction to watch after the minutes are released.

A possible reaction framework for crypto assets under different minutes scenarios

Based on analysis of the minutes’ core dimensions, a scenario projection framework can be built with three main scenarios:

Scenario one (most hawkish): The minutes show that most officials believe energy shocks will persistently push inflation higher, and that the inflation expectations anchor faces substantial risk. Rate hikes have been incorporated into more officials’ baseline considerations, and the discussion in the Summary of Economic Projections clearly points to compressing the number of rate cuts to zero. In this scenario, U.S. Treasury yields would rise significantly, the dollar would strengthen, liquidity expectations would tighten, and the crypto market might test the $68,000–$68,500 secondary support zone.

Scenario two (baseline scenario): The minutes confirm that the rate-cut path remains unchanged; officials overall maintain the “wait-and-see” consensus. Inflation concerns are concentrated on short-term supply shocks, and the forecast for one rate cut is not further downgraded. This is the main scenario priced in by the market. After the minutes are released, the crypto market may experience short-term volatility but with no clear direction. Whether $70,000 can hold will become the near-term line between bulls and bears.

Scenario three (most dovish): The minutes show that inflation concerns are lower than what the statement wording implies. More officials tend to make room for rate cuts to account for downside economic risks. In the discussion in the Summary of Economic Projections, voices calling for 2 rate cuts reemerge. In this scenario, risk appetite would improve significantly, and BTC could test the $73,000–$75,000 dense trading zone to the upside, but investors should watch whether ETF fund flows can turn positive in sync.

Summary

The Fed’s March meeting minutes are the crypto market’s final opportunity for a comprehensive assessment of the policy path before the end-of-April FOMC meeting. The minutes will release key signals across three dimensions: the inflation stance, the war assessment, and internal disagreements. These directly influence market pricing of the number of rate cuts in 2026 (currently 1–2) and the possibility of rate hikes. The crypto market is currently in a fragile structure where derivatives-driven rebounds and institutional fund outflows coexist. Any signal that deviates beyond market expectations could trigger sharp volatility. Investors should closely watch the minutes’ judgments on the persistence of energy shocks, the assessment of whether the inflation expectations anchor remains stable, and the discussion proportions among officials for the two scenarios of rate cuts and rate hikes. These details will determine the crypto market’s short-term direction and the mid-term pricing framework after the minutes take effect.

FAQ

Q: When will the Fed’s March meeting minutes be released?

A: The Federal Reserve will release the March FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on April 8, corresponding to early hours of April 9 Beijing time.

Q: What content in the minutes should be watched the most?

A: The most important points include: officials’ assessment of the inflation outlook (especially the persistence evaluation of energy shocks), the two-scenario analysis of the economic impact of the Middle East war, and the degree of disagreement among officials in the Summary of Economic Projections on the number of rate cuts and the possibility of rate hikes.

Q: How will the minutes’ outcome affect the crypto market?

A: The hawkish-versus-dovish stance of the minutes directly affects how the market prices the rate-cut path. A hawkish signal (inflation becoming entrenched, rate-hike discussions heating up) will suppress expectations for risk-asset liquidity. A dovish signal could boost risk appetite. However, the crypto market’s current structural fragility amplifies volatility sensitivity, so a combined judgment with ETF fund-flow data is necessary.

Q: Where are the key price levels in the current crypto market?

A: As of April 8, 2026, BTC is trading around $71,000. $70,000 has shifted from strong resistance to the first support. If it breaks down effectively, the next support is the prior consolidation range at $68,000–$68,500. If it breaks upward, the next resistance points to the dense trading zone at $73,000–$75,000.

Q: What level are rate-cut expectations at right now?

A: The median in the March Summary of Economic Projections holds at a path of 1 rate cut in both 2026 and 2027. However, the number of officials predicting no rate cuts this year has risen from 4 to 7, and the number predicting 1 rate cut is 7. Market expectations for the number of rate cuts over the full year have been compressed from the prior 2 cuts to 1–2.