Today’s wave of explosive gains seems like a return of the bull market, but in reality it’s more like a carefully designed emotional squeeze.

First, let me lay out the viewpoint clearly: this is not a restart of the bull market, but a phase rebound driven by emotions.

The core contradiction at present has never changed—so-called “peace talks” are, in essence, only a way to delay the pace of the conflict, not to end it. The conditions proposed by Iran are almost impossible for the U.S. to fully accept, and the game is still ongoing. In other words, geopolitical risks have not disappeared, and market uncertainty remains persistently high. Therefore, the essence of this round of upswing is fundamentally just a short-term release of sentiment triggered by the news flow, not a reversal of the trend.

Now, look at the chart itself from the essence of it: recently, bearish sentiment across the entire internet has been stacked to extreme levels, and market consensus is too strong. In trading, that kind of unanimity is itself a risk signal. When everyone is looking bearish, what the main players are best at doing is harvesting traders against human nature. This sharp surge is, in essence, a liquidation action against shorts; high-leverage short positions are basically wiped out in one sweep, and the market completes the first round of reshuffling.

But the story doesn’t end there. When the high-leverage is wiped out, the next ones to be harvested are those low-leverage shorts that have been indecisive and forced to stop out. After clearing out all the shorts, and when everyone becomes too afraid to short, the next wave of the market will be ready to start.

From the current structure, after the big coin’s price breaks through the 7w level, market sentiment quickly shifts to unanimous bullishness; but the gap around 7.3w, instead, becomes a magnet for bull traps. Once most people start believing that a “trend reversal” is underway, the real risk is only just beginning to brew.

At the current stage, it is still defined as a bear market—shorting rallies is still the clearest choice in this stage.
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