Dollar Weakens and Geopolitical De-escalation Boost Gold Prices

Gold Focus:

US–Iran Ceasefire and Its Impact on Energy Prices
Weakening US Dollar vs. High Interest Rate Expectations
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 – Gold prices rose to US$4,741 per troy ounce at the start of today's trading session, driven by a weakening US dollar and easing geopolitical tensions following the announcement of a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran for two weeks. The agreement was reached ahead of the deadline for further military action, with the condition of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This positive sentiment pushed oil prices down below US$100 per barrel and caused the US dollar index to weaken by 0.98%, directly increasing gold's appeal to global investors.

On the other hand, the surge in energy prices during the conflict still poses inflation risks that could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for longer. Bond market participants currently expect the US benchmark interest rate to remain steady until the end of the year, supported by statements from Fed officials like Philip Jefferson and John Williams, who assess that core inflation pressures remain relatively stable.

Looking ahead, gold movements are expected to continue being influenced by ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, including the planned talks on April 10 in Islamabad. Additionally, markets will watch for US inflation data releases, FOMC minutes, and employment indicators as key factors in monetary policy direction. Amid potential signs of a slowing global economy that markets are beginning to anticipate, gold could receive additional support, although pressure from high interest rates remains a limiting factor.

Technically, the nearest support levels for gold are around $4,635 to $4,565, while the nearest resistance is at $4,746 to $4,787. If selling pressure increases, deeper support can be seen at $4,454, with medium-term resistance around $4,898.