Most people are fixated on Trump's tariff drama, but honestly, if you're wondering when will stock market crash, you should be looking at two much bigger red flags that nobody's really talking about.

Let me break this down. Last year was wild for stocks -- S&P 500 jumped nearly 18%, way above the historical 10% average. Sounds great, right? Except here's the thing: almost half of that entire gain came from just seven mega-cap stocks, with Nvidia basically carrying the whole index on its back. We're talking about one chipmaker accounting for 15% of the entire market's return. That's not healthy market breadth. That's a concentration problem waiting to explode.

The AI narrative has been pumping these valuations to absurd levels. The CAPE ratio -- which smooths out earnings over a decade to account for economic cycles -- just hit 40. We haven't seen numbers like that since the dot-com bubble peaked in 2000. And here's what's even more concerning: the companies actually building the infrastructure (Nvidia, chip makers) are crushing it with profits, but the consumer-facing AI companies like OpenAI? They're bleeding cash. We're talking about $14 billion in annual burn just to stay in the game. Eventually, the market will wake up to the fact that most of these AI applications aren't actually profitable yet.

But that's not even the scariest part. The other reason we could see a significant market correction has to do with something most retail investors completely overlook -- the U.S. dollar.

The dollar got hammered last year. Down 8% on the index, which basically wiped out a huge chunk of the S&P's actual returns when you adjust for currency. Against the euro specifically? The dollar lost nearly 15% of its value. This matters because U.S. stocks are priced in dollars. When the dollar weakens, your purchasing power erodes, even if share prices look good on paper.

What's driving this? Trump's pushing the Fed hard to cut rates, and a lot of smart money sees this as political pressure on what's supposed to be an independent institution. That kind of interference with monetary policy doesn't inspire confidence in the currency. Add in the fact that the U.S. deficit is ballooning toward $1.9 trillion, and you've got a recipe for continued dollar weakness.

So when will stock market crash? Could be sooner than you think if these two factors converge. The concentration in mega-cap AI stocks combined with a weakening dollar and unsustainable data center spending could trigger a meaningful correction. History shows markets always recover, but that doesn't mean the ride down won't be rough. Smart move right now is diversifying across different asset classes and sectors to reduce your exposure to any single industry. And honestly, downturns are often the best time to actually find decent stocks at reasonable prices.