Market Analysis 2026.04.08

BTC this morning experienced an upward surge influenced by news. Regarding the US-Iran issue, I believe it’s still a bit early to say it’s fully resolved. My impression is that it’s more about stalling than a true resolution. We won’t speculate too much on the specific reasons.

The rally from BTC’s 60k mark is a rebound. Based on the rebound levels, I’ve outlined two potential paths: red and blue.

Red Path: The rebound from BTC’s 60k targets the entire decline from 126,000 to 60k. Under this path, a break above 76,000 to set a new high is allowed. However, generally in a bear market, rebounds should not touch the previous low of the last rebound, which is 80,600. After this rebound ends, BTC will continue to decline, and within this bear cycle, there will be no larger rebound than the red box level. The next such upward move would occur during a bull market cycle. This also means that most of the time after 2026 along this path will be dead time.

Blue Path: The rebound from 60k to 76,000 targets the decline from 97,900 to 60k, and this rebound has already ended. Currently, the move from 65,000 is a new downtrend, although the rebound was relatively strong due to news. If this week’s weekly close is above 70,300, the probability of this trend continuing decreases. If the trend follows this path, there will still be good swing trading opportunities in the first half of 2026.