Market Strategy Tips (April 8 — April 9, Yesterday to Today)

Market Analysis
From yesterday to today (April 8 — April 9), the core market drivers are the official implementation of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement + the marginal easing of hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve + the comprehensive recovery of global risk appetite. Gold has surged against the trend, reaching new historical highs, breaking through the key level of $4,800; the crypto market has also shown strong upward momentum, with Bitcoin stabilizing above $70k and breaking through $72,000. Mainstream cryptocurrencies have all risen, showing a concentrated release of bullish sentiment and a significant increase in volatility, forming a strong market pattern.
Macro News
1. The core trading logic has shifted to a "significant cooling of geopolitical conflict risks + notable easing of stagflation concerns + marginal loosening of the Federal Reserve's high-interest rate pricing," leading to a slight warming of expectations for rate cuts within the year. The US and Iran, with the involvement of a third party, officially accepted Pakistan’s proposed two-week ceasefire agreement. Trump announced a two-week pause on military strikes against Iran. Iran temporarily opened the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides will begin formal negotiations in Islamabad on April 10. Geopolitical spillover risks have greatly diminished. Brent crude oil dropped from a high of $110 to around $103, easing stagflation fears. Fed officials, including Goolsbee, stated that stagflation shocks caused by Middle East conflicts have put the Fed in a policy dilemma, marginally loosening market expectations for "maintaining high interest rates longer." The CME FedWatch tool shows a 98.4% chance of no rate change in April and 97.9% in June, with only one rate cut priced in for the year, and the rate hike expectation has almost completely disappeared. The US dollar index retreated from 104.85 to 104.2, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 4.39% to 4.32%, temporarily reducing macro pressure on non-yield assets like gold and cryptocurrencies. Global stock markets and risk assets rebounded across the board.
2. Gold has surged against the trend, reaching new historical highs again, driven by central bank gold purchases, technical buying, and short covering. International spot gold opened yesterday around $4,630 during Asian trading hours, then continued to rise steadily, breaking through the $4,800 mark in the evening, with a high of $4,856.15 per ounce, setting a new record. Currently, during Asian trading, it is at $4,799.16 per ounce, with a maximum 24-hour increase of over 3.5%. COMEX gold futures also surged, reaching a high of $4,888 per ounce, currently at $4,833, up 3.17% for the day. In the domestic market, Shanghai Gold futures closed at ¥1059.44 per gram, up 2.58%; Gold T+D at ¥1056.21 per gram, up 2.57%. Major domestic retail prices for pure gold jewelry have also been raised to the range of ¥1450–¥1480 per gram. The main drivers of this round of rise are: first, persistent global central bank gold purchases providing solid support, with China’s gold reserves at 74.38 million ounces at the end of March, marking 17 consecutive months of accumulation; the long-term logic of global central bank gold buying remains unchanged. Second, technical buying and short covering resonated; after gold broke through the previous strong resistance at $4,700, a large amount of algorithmic buying was triggered, and short positions on COMEX were heavily closed, further boosting bullish momentum. Third, concerns about geopolitical conflicts persist, and combined with easing stagflation worries and the debate over the Fed’s policy space, safe-haven buying has not fully subsided. Regarding liquidity, the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 1,054.42 tons on April 7, unchanged from the previous day, after adding 3.43 tons on April 6, ending a previous outflow trend, indicating marginal institutional capital inflow. Key support levels are: $4,750–$4,780 (former high and support from top-bottom reversal), strong support at $4,680–$4,700 (breakout level and key support/resistance), and key resistance at $4,850–$4,880 (daily new high zone).
3. The crypto market has shown strong upward momentum, with Bitcoin breaking through $72,000, driven by risk appetite recovery + institutional capital inflow + short covering. Bitcoin opened yesterday around $69,800, then continued to rise, breaking through $70k, $71,000, and $72,000 levels in succession, with a high of $72,480, hitting a two-week high. Currently, during Asian trading, it is at $72,150, with a 24-hour increase of over 4.6%. Ethereum also surged, reaching a high of $2,210, currently at $2,195, up over 5.1% in 24 hours. Mainstream coins like SOL and DOGE rose over 6%, with market bullish sentiment fully erupting. In terms of capital and on-chain data: BTC spot ETF inflows continued, with a net inflow of over $120 million on April 7, including Fidelity’s FBTC with $87 million net inflow, and Grayscale’s GBTC net outflow narrowed to $21 million, easing institutional selling pressure. The contract market saw 112k liquidations in 24 hours, totaling $324 million, with short liquidations accounting for 78%, making short covering the main driver of this rally. On-chain data shows exchange BTC net outflows exceeding 21k coins in one day, a near one-month high, with significant accumulation by whale addresses below 70k. The proportion of large transfers of 1,000+ coins increased to 72%, indicating higher concentration of holdings. The crypto fear and greed index rose to 42, fully exiting the fear zone, with market sentiment fully restored. Technically, the daily chart successfully broke through the strong resistance at $70k, reversing the mid-term downtrend. The only major resistance above is in the $73,000–$75,000 range, where historical trapped positions exist.
Special Reminders
Gold has now broken through its all-time high, with bullish sentiment fully released. However, the environment of high interest rates from the Federal Reserve has not fundamentally changed. There is no clear technical resistance above the $4,850 high zone, and volatility risks have sharply increased. Do not blindly chase highs; beware of rapid pullbacks caused by profit-taking among bulls. It is recommended to operate with light positions, and consider small long positions on dips to support levels of $4,750–$4,780, with strict stop-loss at $4,700. When prices rebound above $4,850, reduce positions on rallies, and strictly control overall exposure to avoid extreme high-level volatility.
The crypto market’s recent strong rally has broken the key $70,000 level, indicating a reversal of the medium-term trend and full recovery of market sentiment. However, there remains strong historical resistance above $73,000, and after a large short-term rally, a technical correction may be needed. Avoid heavy long positions or full margin trading. Keep positions within 40%. Only consider adding on dips after the market stabilizes at the $70,000–$71,000 support zone. If the price drops again below $70,000, be alert to short-term correction risks, reduce positions promptly to lock in profits, and prioritize avoiding high-level retracements.