#四月行情预测 Are the US and Iran not fighting anymore? Who are they fooling? I don't believe it!!!

Last night, both the US and Iran made statements about a ceasefire. Trump believes the Iran conflict will end within 2-3 weeks, and Iran said they could cease fire if their conditions are met. It seems neither side wants to fight anymore. But truly ending the conflict is very difficult. Looking closely at the statements from both sides, they are basically talking past each other.

Trump maintains his usual "win big" style, saying Iran has recently been begging to negotiate and has basically agreed to his 15-point ceasefire plan, which includes key clauses demanding Iran permanently ban enrichment activities and restrict ballistic missile range and development. This is essentially forcing Iran to disarm and surrender; if they are attacked again, they can only kneel and recite the Quran.

Iran is now showing a stance of total destruction, and has gained support from countries like Russia. Why would they agree to such a hopeless agreement? Iran also states they haven't had direct talks with the US, and they demand war reparations from the US and recognition of control over the Strait of Hormuz. Reparations don't matter much—at worst, the Middle East kings can pay. But originally, the Strait of Hormuz was open for free passage. Now, it’s turned into a toll station, which could bring Iran an enormous annual income of $60 billion. Anyone with a brain can see whether this is a win for the US or Iran. How can Trump maintain face?

And then there's Israel—Prime Minister Netanyahu won't easily let Trump back down. If Iran isn't crippled, Netanyahu might not be able to protect himself either. Creating chaos during US-Iran negotiations, faking attacks on Middle Eastern US military bases, and assassinating some Iranian officials are all quite simple. I think this war probably won't end soon, and there might be more surprises ahead.