#创作者冲榜 Both the US dollar and crude oil have broken through 100, yet gold is rising against the trend this time?

On Monday, the US dollar index closed at 100.57, and crude oil futures rose to $102.88 per barrel—both "100" figures appearing simultaneously. According to traditional trading manuals, this is a double negative for gold: a strong dollar raises the purchasing costs for non-U.S. buyers, and a short-term surge in crude oil often triggers concerns about liquidity tightening. However, gold has risen for five consecutive days, closing at $4,540, with a total increase of 2.84%. This abnormal scene prompts traders to reconsider the pricing logic of gold.
Why is the traditional script failing?
The textbook explanation is: when the dollar rises, gold falls; when crude oil rises, inflation expectations heat up, benefiting gold in the long term, but short-term it often falls first before rising. But this time, gold skipped the "drop" phase entirely. The reason is that crude oil surged 18.28% over five days, and inflation expectations came in too fast and too strong. When the market begins to worry that "money is worthless," the demand for gold as an inflation hedge outweighs the pressure from the dollar's appreciation.
In other words, investors are currently more concerned about the erosion of purchasing power than the disadvantages of exchange rate valuation.
But HSBC warns: gold is no longer what it used to be.
"Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, gold prices have behaved completely unexpectedly," said HSBC Asset Management analysts. Traditionally, geopolitical tensions should push gold higher, but in reality, gold has fallen a total of 15% since March.
Why?
The holdings structure has changed. HSBC points out that ownership of gold has shifted to retail investors and leveraged buyers, and when the market is under pressure, this segment is more likely to be forced to liquidate. Gold in 2026 is showing more characteristics of "risk assets" rather than pure safe-haven assets. This explains why the rebound is quick and volatile—leveraged capital inflows and outflows amplify the two-way movement.
Technical outlook: the real test is still ahead.
Although there is a short-term rebound, gold prices are still below the 100-day moving average (at $4,624). Since breaking below this average on March 26, every rebound has been stopped here. Whether it can close above $4,624 is a key indicator of whether this is a "rebound" or a "trend restart." If it breaks through, it could attract momentum traders back; if it fails, recent lows may be retested.
It’s worth noting that gold is still about 19.31% below its all-time high of $5,626—this gap reminds everyone that the rebound is only the first step. HSBC Chief Gold Analyst James Steel bluntly said in an interview: "When the market rises parabolically, high volatility is inevitable. Volatility will be the keyword for gold this year. Even though it is a safe-haven asset, that doesn’t mean it isn’t volatile." He also discussed the relationship between gold and real US bond yields— the once-perfect inverse correlation has been completely broken. "Gold’s sensitivity to real interest rates is much less than before," Steel said. Regarding de-dollarization, he believes the dollar will still be the long-term reserve currency, but central banks can reduce dollar exposure by buying gold.
Data confirms this: since 2022, global central banks’ gold purchases have reached 2 to 3 times the average of the past decade.
In the short term, focus on inflation; in the long term, on de-dollarization. Currently, the surge in crude oil prices supports short-term inflation expectations for gold. But the true long-term narrative remains the ongoing central bank purchases driven by the global de-dollarization trend.
The simultaneous appearance of three "100"s and gold rising against the trend is not a new normal but a tug-of-war between inflation expectations and the strength of the dollar. Whether it can break above $4,624 this week will provide the first answer.