3.31 Bitcoin Evening Analysis

Bitcoin surged to $68,405 before quickly pulling back. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the price has effectively broken below the middle band at $67,033.9, currently testing the lower band around $65,987. The rebound strength is very weak, with resistance at the middle band forming a "downward decline" pattern. Short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment, indicating a clear downtrend.

On the macro front, the situation is even more grim: in March, the US dollar index rose strongly, gaining over 2.4% this month. The Fed's rate cut expectations have completely reversed, with a 92.5% probability of holding rates steady in June. The high-interest-rate environment continues to drain liquidity from risk assets; combined with the Middle East conflict pushing oil prices to a high of $105, inflation pressures are forcing tightening policies. Funds are shifting from the crypto market to the US dollar and safe-haven assets like gold, further suppressing Bitcoin's valuation.

Additionally, ETFs have experienced continuous net outflows, and market sentiment is in extreme fear. Leverage funds are still being deleveraged. In the short term, Bitcoin is unlikely to see a strong rebound and is likely to continue oscillating weakly. If the support at $66,000 breaks, the downward space could open up to $60,000–$56,000. Trading strategy: consider shorting on rallies, with strict risk control.

Trading suggestion: rebound to $67,500–$68,000, target $65,500–$66,000.