#创作者冲榜 # The crypto market generally rises

The market is strongly rebounding. Will the monthly candle close again in a downtrend?

On the day of March's closing, also the time when a new monthly candle is about to form, the overall crypto market shows a moderate upward trend. The RWA sector performs relatively well, up 2.16% over 24 hours, BTC up 1.87%, with a high of 68,378. This is very close to the first resistance level of 68,500 we mentioned yesterday. This is a key turning point between bulls and bears. Long positions can take profits and exit, then reverse to open short positions. If the price breaks through 69,000 later, add to short positions. Today is the monthly close, so pay close attention to whether a sixth consecutive bearish candle forms. I believe this is highly probable, indicating a new downward trend is beginning. That’s the conclusion I want to share. Now, let’s analyze:

1. Technical Analysis

On the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin shows a clear oscillating pattern. Early in the session, a bullish engulfing pattern appeared, causing a brief rally. However, near midday, a bearish harami and a bearish doji appeared, leading to a quick decline. Currently, the price has broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, MACD shows a dead cross with increasing green bars, indicating short-term downward adjustment space. The short-term trend is mainly bearish.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is forming a channel. After a bullish crossover, MACD’s red bars started to shrink, and the price broke below the middle Bollinger Band, also indicating a bearish trend.

On the daily chart, after a quick rebound to the MA10, the price quickly fell back. Currently, there is an inverted T-shaped long upper shadow. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are in a bearish alignment, MACD shows a dead cross, and the green bars are expanding, clearly signaling a short-term downward trend.

Key levels today:
First support: 66,500
Second support: 65,000
First resistance: 68,500

2. News Analysis

1. Trump announced willingness to cease hostilities with Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
2. China has 3 ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
3. Powell delivered a "dovish" speech at Harvard, stating that amid the energy shocks triggered by the US-Israel conflict with Iran, the Federal Reserve tends to keep interest rates unchanged and temporarily "ignore" this impact, betting against market expectations of an emergency rate hike.
4. The White House completed regulatory review, and Bitcoin has officially been included in the US 401(k) retirement investment scope, opening the door to a $14 trillion pension market.

3. Capital Flow Analysis

1. Institutional funds continue to flow in: BlackRock, Fidelity, and other spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen continuous net inflows. As of March 30, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has achieved four consecutive days of net inflows, with a single-day net inflow of $7.7 million. Notably, during the last week of March, the inflow accelerated, reversing the previous months of net outflows.

2. Compliance process accelerates: Hong Kong issues its first stablecoin licenses, and the joint regulatory framework of the US SEC and CFTC is implemented.

3. Today’s Fear and Greed Index is 11, indicating extreme fear.