Is the rate cut script being torn apart? The market is actually starting to bet on "emergency rate hikes." Will the Federal Reserve turn hostile this time?

The main storyline for 2026 was simple: rate cuts → liquidity return → risk asset frenzy.
But now it’s directly changing to: war variables intervening, the Fed’s script being rewritten.
The key contradiction arises:
What happens if the Middle East conflict escalates?
The answer is only two words: inflation.
Once oil prices surge, the entire inflation chain will be reignited—
Transportation costs, manufacturing costs, even food prices, will all skyrocket.
What will the Federal Reserve do at this point?
Continue cutting rates? That’s equivalent to “allowing inflation to explode.”
Be forced to hike rates? That’s like “admitting policy is out of control.”
So the market has simply staged a preview:
👉 Interest rate options are starting to show “extreme rate hike hedges”
👉 The bond market is already in panic mode
This isn’t really a bet on “whether they will hike rates,” but on:
👉 Whether policy will lose its rhythm and control
The most dramatic part is:
The market has now entered a “dual face-slapping mode”—
* Those betting on rate cuts fear war
* Those betting on rate hikes fear successful negotiations
No one is safe.
So the real question now isn’t “to hike or not,” but:
👉 If a black swan appears, can your positions survive?
Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments:
👉 Do you think there will be a rate cut this year?
👉 If there’s an unexpected 50bp hike, will your positions blow up? #美联储加息预期再起