#美联储加息预期再起

The U.S. and Israel break their promises to bomb Iran's energy facilities. How should we position ourselves as the Middle East situation escalates?

The U.S. and Israel are no longer pretending! Yesterday, Trump’s social media announced an extension of the pause on strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure by 10 days. Early this morning, news broke of U.S. and Israeli bombings of Iranian power plants and nuclear facilities. While the U.S. claims to seek negotiations, its backtracking and large-scale attacks on Tehran fully reveal its true intentions—merely a smokescreen to mobilize domestic forces for a ground invasion of Iran. So, in the face of potential escalation, how should we position ourselves?

👉 Cryptocurrency Market—Bitcoin drops below support due to bearish news, short-term buying dips, medium-term mainly high-altitude trading

Bitcoin’s recent performance has disappointed those who proclaim “Bitcoin is the new digital gold.” After the U.S. and Israel resumed bombing Iran, Bitcoin’s price plummeted from 72,000 down to around 66,300. Meanwhile, gold has regained strength, showing resilience. There’s no such thing as a fixed safe haven; it’s all driven by the capital behind the market manipulations.

Back to Bitcoin: currently, amid escalating conflict and bearish news, the price continues to decline, breaking through key support levels, forming a bearish trend. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin on the daily chart has touched the lower Bollinger Band, which provides some support, and has diverged from the MA5 moving average, indicating a short-term rebound could occur. On the weekly chart, the price has broken below the short-term moving averages, suggesting a new downward wave may begin. The medium-term strategy should focus on shorting. My current plan is:

Short-term long position: Entry around 66,500
Take profit around 67,700
Stop loss around 65,900

Medium-term short position: Entry around 67,700
Stop loss around 69,100

👉 Crude Oil Market—Escalating tensions may push oil prices higher

This morning, news broke that Yemen’s Houthi forces have officially joined the U.S.-Iran conflict, claiming control of the Red Sea. Additionally, the most critical Saudi oil pipeline is within Houthi-controlled territory, which will undoubtedly push oil prices higher. If the U.S. conducts ground operations in Iran or if the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed, Middle Eastern oil exports will face greater difficulties. Iran has previously stated that if tensions escalate, it will open a new battlefield in the Strait of Mand. If that happens, oil export routes could be completely shut, causing crude prices to surge. The oil market can position some long orders, watching whether the previous high near $120 will be broken.

👉 Gold Market—Volatile sideways movement, mainly observe

Recently, gold has experienced a wave of decline and rebound, trading within a broad range of $4,300–$4,700 per ounce. Based on technical and news analysis, the market may remain in a “neither up nor down” state in the short term, so it’s advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Technically, the 100-day moving average has become a key battleground for bulls and bears, with prices crossing it repeatedly. The $4,120 per ounce level is a long-term safe zone based on “amplitude cycle” calculations, where gold has shown a clear rebound after touching this level. The $4,700 resistance is a strong recent rebound target that has been tested multiple times without effective breakthrough.

From a news perspective, the main pressure on prices comes from the Fed’s shift in monetary policy expectations and rising global inflation expectations driven by high oil prices. The Fed’s March meeting signaled a more hawkish stance than expected, with the dot plot indicating most officials expect rates to stay above 3.4% through the end of 2026. Market expectations for rate cuts this year have shifted from optimistic to pessimistic, even betting on possible rate hikes, making it difficult for gold bulls in the short to medium term.

Long-term, this volatility may be a sign of bottoming out. Repeated fluctuations at this level help fully digest negative market sentiment and reduce leverage. Long-term investors can consider buying dips above 4100, with stops below 4000.

👉 Sharing a fun investment—betting on the Fed not to raise interest rates on Polymarket at Gate

Due to inflation concerns triggered by high oil prices, there’s a prediction market on whether the Fed will emergency hike rates within two weeks. I believe that with the U.S. labor market remaining weak, the likelihood of a rate hike is relatively low. You can place a bet on “No rate hike” on Polymarket and hold long-term, making it a steady investment.

What do you think about the gold, oil, and Bitcoin markets? Do you agree with what Little God of Wealth is saying? Feel free to leave comments! #创作者冲榜