SpaceX's Impact on a Trillion-Dollar Valuation: Will the Market Buy into the "Elon Musk Universe"?

From Apple Inc. ushering in the era of trillion-dollar market caps to the current market becoming accustomed to "trillions in valuation," the ceiling for tech giants continues to rise. And this time, the focus is on SpaceX.

Market reports indicate that Elon Musk is pushing for an IPO as early as mid-2026, with a fundraising scale potentially reaching $75 billion and a target valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be one of the largest IPOs in history, even surpassing Saudi Aramco's record.

The key point is: SpaceX is no longer just a space exploration company.

On one hand, its rocket launch business plus government contracts form a stable foundation; on the other hand, Starlink has become a major cash flow source, with its business model gradually maturing. More critically, by integrating xAI and social platform X (formerly Twitter), it aims to build a "space + AI + communication" super ecosystem.

Essentially, this is telling a bigger story — not just a space company going public, but a "future infrastructure platform."

But the questions are equally clear:
Will xAI, which is extremely costly to operate (about $1 billion per month), drag down cash flow?
Is the business too complex, risking market discounting?
At such a high valuation, will anyone actually buy in on the public market?

In other words, SpaceX's IPO is fundamentally a "faith-based valuation."

Historical experience shows that during periods of loose liquidity, markets are more willing to pay for "imagination"; but once risk appetite shrinks, even the grandest narratives need to be backed by cash flow.

Expert's View:
This is not an ordinary IPO; it’s a typical "top-of-cycle test."
If SpaceX successfully goes public at a valuation close to $1.5–$1.7 trillion and gains market enthusiasm, it essentially indicates that —
Global risk assets are still in a high-risk appetite phase, and liquidity has not truly tightened.
Conversely, if there is:
Insufficient subscription
Immediate decline upon listing
Or a sharp valuation correction
Then it’s not a problem with SpaceX, but with the entire market.
You can consider this IPO as a "weather vane" for global risk asset sentiment over the next 1–2 years.

To sum up:
SpaceX is not the key; whether the market is willing to pay for the "Elon Musk Universe" is the real focus.
Do you think such a valuation level will be accepted by the market?