‍#Gate正式接入Polymarket

My experience after playing Polymarket for a day

People who enjoy reading the Morning Briefing from Little God of Wealth often see news like “Betting market predicts a 60% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.” How does betting on these events work? No need to wonder anymore—Gate has officially integrated with the world’s largest decentralized prediction market, Polymarket. You can now predict sports events, geopolitical incidents, financial market fluctuations, and more. I also tried it out firsthand.

📈 Same as buying low and selling high, but not the traditional “betting on big or small”

After trying it out, I found that prediction markets are not just about guessing whether something will happen—if you get it right, you “win,” and if you’re wrong, you lose everything. It’s similar to trading cryptocurrencies, where you can profit by buying low and selling high. For example, in a prediction about “Will the US-Iran war end in April,” the price reflects the current market’s perceived probability of the event happening. A price of 0.4 means a 40% chance. If you believe this probability is underestimated, you can buy shares indicating “Yes” to the event. If later news reports that US-Iran talks have made progress and the chance of ending the war rises to 90%, then you can profit from the price difference of 0.3. Of course, this is a binary event; there are also scalar and composite events that Little God of Wealth hasn’t participated in yet. Everyone can update the Gate app and explore at their own pace.

💪 Advantages of Gate integrating with Polymarket

1. Makes it easy for users to participate in Polymarket prediction markets. Users can transfer their account balance into the prediction market with one click and participate in trading. After settlement, the winnings are automatically converted 1:1 into stablecoins and transferred to the spot account.

2. Connects to the decentralized ecosystem. Many people may not know that Polymarket is a decentralized market itself, built on blockchain smart contracts that handle trading and settlement. Once the event result is confirmed, the contract automatically executes. For crypto enthusiasts participating in decentralized predictions, it’s like going back home!

💰 Tips for Profiting on Polymarket

1. Basic trading: buy low, sell high

Don’t chase market sentiment on hot events. For uncertain events, try to buy when the probability is low and take profits when the market FOMO peaks. This is similar to crypto trading—avoid chasing rallies and panic selling.

2. Hold long-term high-potential events

For events you believe have a very high chance of happening, long-term holding might be a wise choice. For example, previously on Polymarket, there was a market asking “Will Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire before December 31, 2025?” If you have in-depth knowledge of Middle East affairs, you could buy shares at low prices and wait for market sentiment or diplomatic developments to push the price up.

3. Use information advantages

Polymarket’s prices are driven by the crowd, but not all participants have equal access to information. Pay close attention to the latest real-time news to gain firsthand insights. Acting before market sentiment fully reflects the probabilities can be profitable. Here’s a tip: every morning, check the “God of Wealth Daily” for the latest news summaries!

4. Arbitrage opportunities: cross-market price differences

Arbitrage involves profiting from price differences across markets. This strategy is suitable for advanced traders. Little God of Wealth has seen this approach online but hasn’t tried it yet. Specifically, because of Polymarket’s decentralized nature, its prices (probabilities) may differ from other prediction markets like (PredictIt) or traditional betting platforms. Traders can buy low in one market and sell high in another simultaneously, locking in risk-free profits.

📌 My small suggestion
Currently, it would be better if more detailed historical data charts were added, or if more background information on popular events and hot topics was provided to help users make decisions. Additionally, in the future, having a simulated prediction feature or making the first bet with a guaranteed payout a regular option could help users familiarize themselves with prediction market participation and gameplay, such as scalar and composite events, which would better guide beginners into the space.
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