# Gold XAU/USD 1D 👀

To identify the bottom in gold, we first need to determine when extraordinary price movements occurred, why they happened, and whether these reasons are still valid. Simply put, as the reasons for the rise disappear, the price will fall.

In the chart below, in the area I marked as the White Zone, gold experienced its first absurd rally in August 2021. After this date, all subsequent rallies caused abnormal inflows of money into gold, pushing the price above its normal level.

Within this abnormal surge, there were many different reasons such as war alerts, central banks stockpiling large amounts of gold, etc. Actually, understanding the story of gold is quite simple—once these reasons disappear, gold will return to its real value, meaning the price will decrease.

Now, let’s move to today and answer the question, “How far will gold fall?”:

Since childhood, there is a saying: “Gold never forgets the price it sees,” and it won’t forget. First, the price will fall to the support level I marked as the green zone in the chart. The abnormal money inflow will exit, and then, as investors see that they can price gold above its market value, they will gradually start stockpiling gold again, and gold will rise to new all-time highs.

After understanding our story, let’s now discuss where to buy and where to sell:

If you are a short-term investor—1 to 6 months—and you have long positions, my condolences. I believe that in the short term, one rally followed by two declines will push the gold/ounce parity down to around 3500 levels. If you say you cannot wait long-term, I would sell in parts during the rallies and keep cash during the periods I call “two declines.”

If you are a long-term investor—more than 6 months—I think just waiting will even bring you profit, especially considering the TL parity.

You probably already caught the answer to the “where to buy” question in this post:

Finally, all the story I mentioned applies to gold in USD terms. In TL terms, due to the dollar’s appreciation, you won’t lose much; you will only lose to inflation. Stay safe!