TC Energy Caps Transformational 2025 with Record Safety Performance, 15 Flow Milestones, and 26th Year of Dividend Growth

TC Energy released its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on February 13, marking a defining year for North America’s energy infrastructure leader. The company achieved its strongest safety performance in five years while setting 15 delivery records across its pipeline systems, translating into robust financial growth and the 26th consecutive year of dividend increases. This performance underscores how disciplined capital investment and operational excellence drive sustainable value creation in an energy market increasingly defined by surging power demand and LNG export requirements.

Safety Excellence Propels Exceptional Operational Achievement

The standout story of 2025 is the direct correlation between TC Energy’s enhanced safety culture and record-breaking operational performance. The company’s commitment to safety excellence generated remarkable throughput achievements across all major systems. U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines reached an all-time delivery record of 39.9 Bcf (billion cubic feet per day) on January 29, 2026, while Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines delivered 33.2 Bcf on the same date. Deliveries to liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities surged 21 percent quarter-over-quarter, setting new daily records of approximately 4.4 Bcf on December 4, 2025. Mexican pipelines maintained steady operations at 2.7 Bcf/d, representing roughly 20 percent of total Mexican gas demand during the period.

Multiple system segments contributed to this milestone year. Canadian Mainline Western receipts increased 3 percent, NGTL system deliveries rose 2 percent, and U.S. pipeline average flows jumped 9.5 percent compared to the prior year quarter. These achievements reflect not just the physical capacity of TC Energy’s infrastructure but its ability to reliably meet escalating customer demand during peak periods.

Financial Strength: Double-Digit Growth in Core Earnings Metrics

TC Energy’s financial results validate the operational excellence narrative. For the fourth quarter 2025, comparable EBITDA reached $3.0 billion, a 13 percent year-over-year increase from $2.6 billion. Segmented earnings expanded even more impressively, growing 15 percent to $2.2 billion from $1.9 billion in Q4 2024. On a full-year basis, comparable EBITDA climbed to $11.0 billion (up 9 percent), while segmented earnings remained stable at $8.0 billion.

The company’s operating leverage is evident across its three core pipeline segments. Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines generated $961 million in comparable EBITDA in Q4, up from $851 million year-over-year. U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines delivered $1.388 billion (versus $1.200 billion), while Mexico operations contributed $397 million (compared to $234 million). These improvements reflect both stronger utilization rates and the impact of strategic capacity enhancements completed during the year.

Per-share metrics tell a similar story. Comparable earnings per share reached $0.98 in Q4, down slightly from $1.05 in the prior year, reflecting share count normalization and specific period adjustments. However, full-year comparable EPS of $3.51 remained robust relative to underlying earnings growth, demonstrating the company’s disciplined financial management.

Strategic Capital Deployment Capturing Data Centre and Power Generation Surge

The energy market landscape shifted dramatically in 2025, with data centre power demand and coal-to-gas conversion becoming the dominant growth drivers. TC Energy responded with strategic capital allocation that positions the company at the center of this transition. The company placed $8.3 billion of projects into service during 2025—achieving the rare feat of delivering this capital 15 percent under the board-approved budget and on schedule.

Key project completions included the VR (Greensville to Norfolk) expansion on the Columbia system, which cost approximately $500 million USD and added incremental Virginia-to-tidewater capacity. The WR project on the ANR System in Wisconsin, completed in November 2025 at approximately $700 million USD, strengthened regional mainline capacity. Additionally, the ANR Storage Optimization project enhanced system flexibility by expanding storage capabilities, supporting the company’s ninth consecutive year of fully contracted storage inventory.

Commercial momentum accelerated dramatically in early 2026. On January 9, TC Energy closed a non-binding open season on its Columbia Gas Transmission system for potential 0.5 Bcf/d expansion to serve Columbus and surrounding markets. The response was overwhelming: customers submitted 1.5 Bcf/d of aggregate bids—three times the proposed project capacity—demonstrating the acute supply shortage in Midwest power-load markets. Less than two weeks later, on February 9, the company launched another open season on its Crossroads Pipeline system for up to 1.5 Bcf/d, targeting Northern Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and South Dakota in response to announced data centre and power generation facilities.

$6 Billion Annual Capital Investment Through 2030 Targets Build Multiple Discipline

Building on this exceptional market visibility, TC Energy sanctioned $600 million of lower-risk, in-corridor expansion projects during 2025. The company’s Multi-Year Growth Plan (MYGP) advanced with $500 million in additional expansion facilities targeting the NGTL System, with anticipated in-service dates in 2028. An additional $100 million equity investment in a brownfield U.S. compression expansion project promises a five times build multiple while maintaining disciplined capital discipline.

The Cedar Link project continues tracking ahead of schedule and below its $1.2 billion board-approved budget, exemplifying TC Energy’s project execution capability. Looking forward to 2026, the company expects to place approximately $4 billion of capital into service, including the Bison XPress Project on Northern Border Pipeline, the Valhalla North and Berland River initiatives on NGTL, and Bruce Power Unit 3 as part of its major component replacement program.

For the 2026-2030 period, TC Energy expects to fully deploy $6 billion in net annual capital expenditures with confidence, maintaining targeted build multiples in the 5-7x range. The company has visibility to potentially exceed this investment level in the latter part of the decade as market opportunities mature and commercial discussions progress.

Board Approves 3.2% Dividend Increase, Marking 26 Consecutive Years of Growth

On February 13, 2026, TC Energy’s Board of Directors approved a 3.2 percent increase in the quarterly common share dividend to $0.8775 per common share, equivalent to $3.51 on an annualized basis. This marks the company’s 26th consecutive year of dividend growth—a remarkable testament to sustained earnings power and management’s confidence in the long-term fundamentals.

The dividend action aligns with the company’s strategic positioning. With 98 percent of comparable EBITDA underpinned by rate-regulated or long-term take-or-pay contracts, TC Energy maintains minimal commodity exposure and exceptional visibility to stable, long-term cash flows. The common share dividend is payable on April 30, 2026, to shareholders of record on March 31, 2026, with the Board also declaring customary preferred share dividends.

2026 Outlook: Higher Earnings and Accelerating Strategic Opportunities

Looking ahead to 2026, management expects comparable EBITDA of $11.6 to $11.8 billion (compared to $11.0 billion in 2025) and comparable earnings per share higher than the 2025 full-year result of $3.51. Capital expenditures are anticipated at $6.0 to $6.5 billion gross ($5.5 to $6.0 billion net of non-controlling interests), maintaining the company’s disciplined investment posture.

CEO François Poirier emphasized: “Our safety-first culture is driving exceptional operational performance, leading to 15 flow records across our systems in 2025. As commercial discussions advance across a diverse set of high-quality opportunities, we remain confident in our ability in 2026 to fully allocate $6 billion of net annual capital expenditures through 2030 and have greater visibility to potentially surpass this level of investment in the latter part of the decade.”

North American Natural Gas Demand Surge Opens Structural Growth Window

The fundamental demand outlook supports TC Energy’s optimistic capital deployment trajectory. Industry analysis forecasts North American natural gas demand will expand 45 Bcf/d from approximately 125 Bcf/d in 2025 to roughly 170 Bcf/d by 2035. This 36 percent increase is driven by three structural trends: LNG export growth from North American terminals, escalating power generation requirements (especially from data centre electricity consumption), and increasing reliability needs among local distribution companies serving end consumers.

The data centre sector emerged as the most pronounced demand catalyst in late 2025 and early 2026, with multiple companies announcing massive power facilities concentrated in Midwest regions served by TC Energy’s network. Coal-to-gas conversion initiatives in traditional power generation added additional support to the demand narrative. Together, these developments create an unusually favorable environment for pipeline capacity and infrastructure investment.

Strategic Discipline Positions TC Energy for Decade of Value Creation

TC Energy’s 2025 results and forward guidance reflect disciplined execution against clearly defined strategic priorities: maximizing asset value through safety and operational excellence, executing a selective portfolio of growth projects, and maintaining financial strength with operational agility. The company’s debt-to-EBITDA ratio remains on track toward its long-term target, providing financial flexibility to capitalize on emerging opportunities.

With 98 percent of revenues derived from regulated or contracted revenue mechanisms, TC Energy offers investors exposure to North American energy transition themes—particularly the shift toward cleaner-burning natural gas and robust power infrastructure—without commodity price volatility. The 26 consecutive years of dividend growth, coupled with visible $6 billion annual capital deployment through 2030 and strong 2026 earnings guidance, positions the company as a reliable long-term compounding machine within the energy infrastructure sector.