This week's focus lies on a series of meetings by major central banks, amidst escalating U.S.–Iran tensions that have driven oil prices sharply higher and forced markets to reassess inflation risks.

Attention is converging on the FOMC. At this moment, what the market cares about is not just whether the Fed will cut rates, but how they perceive the impact from oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz, and the risk of inflation making a comeback. It's highly likely that central banks will leave rates unchanged this week, but the tone following the meeting will be the decisive factor for market direction.

Oil prices have now returned to around $100 per barrel, while supply disruption risks are becoming increasingly clear due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. This is also why the market has begun to lower expectations for early monetary policy easing.

At this moment, the Middle East is the most sensitive variable. If tensions continue to escalate, oil could rise further, inflationary pressure will heat up again, gold will benefit, while equities and crypto are likely to face more pronounced pressure.

Overall, this week promises to be highly volatile.

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