#WeekendMarketAnalysis

#WeekendMarketAnalysis

Recent on-chain data shared by CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin (BTC) price has not yet reached a structural bottom, and the market is undergoing a critical "stress test" process.

While the crypto market has shown resilience against recent geopolitical tensions, on-chain data reminds investors to remain cautious. In this cycle dominated by institutional players, the process of forming a bottom is expected to turn into a marathon. Analysts emphasize that for Bitcoin (BTC), particularly for medium-term investors, the "maximum pain" phase has not yet been reached when considering costs and market valuation ratios.

According to the data, the group of investors holding assets for 6 to 12 months has their realized price, or average cost, concentrated at the 100,000 dollar level. The fact that the current price falls far below this cost shows that this group is experiencing significant losses. Historically, cost curves need to flatten for a bottom to form, but the upward slope in the charts creates strong resistance in the market.

The MVRV ratio, which shows the relationship between market value and realized value, is currently trading at 1.2 levels. While this level is a gradual buying zone for "smart money," cyclical bottoms typically occur in surrender phases when this ratio drops below 1.0. Additionally, the share of long-term investors who have not moved their assets for more than two years remains at 15% of total market value. It is noted that this ratio needs to exceed 20% to form a healthy price floor.

Two Different Bottom Scenarios for Bitcoin Price

Analysts are mapping out two main roadmaps for the upcoming period. The first scenario is a painful but rapid bottom process created by a sudden liquidation wave that crashes prices quickly and wipes out high-cost new investors from the market. The second and seemingly more likely scenario is called the "Great Boredom" period where the price trades sideways between 60,000 and 80,000 dollars for an extended period.

During this sideways process, institutional investors are expected to maintain their positions and new capital is expected to gradually transition to "long-term" status over time. In light of current data, volatility between 60,000 and 70,000 dollars is expected, while investors may need to be patient for a real breakout. Although a structural floor has not yet fully formed, current levels continue to offer strategic value for those engaging in long-term accumulation.