February 2026 Market Retrospective: A Comprehensive Analysis of Asset Fluctuations Under Multiple Risks

Federal Reserve leadership changes, sharp fluctuations in precious metals, and cryptocurrency adjustments—this week, the global financial markets experienced a deep retrospective moment. From macro policy signals to micro asset performance, multiple market trends are worth investors’ attention. This market overview will outline recent key changes and their potential impacts.

Macro Outlook Retrospective: Market Restructuring Triggered by Policy Signals

The Trump administration recently nominated Kevin Waugh as Federal Reserve Chair, sparking widespread discussion in the market. Waugh advocates shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet, which may conflict with Trump’s goal of lowering borrowing costs. His former mentor, Drukmiller, defended him, emphasizing his dual stance on monetary policy and the importance of coordination with future Treasury Secretary.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate approved a $1.2 trillion spending bill, but since House members won’t return to Washington until Monday, a short-term government shutdown has become an additional source of market uncertainty. These policy events have supported the dollar index and prompted new reflections on the Fed’s independence.

Commodities Market Review: Precious Metals Rebound from Historic Lows

This week, the precious metals market experienced a significant retrospective turnaround. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange increased margin requirements for gold and silver futures, reflecting a sharp rise in market volatility. After last week’s historic plunge, gold and silver both rebounded, with spot gold down 2.14% and spot silver down 1.27%, indicating a gradual recovery from extreme sentiment.

Analysts at Bank of America believe a “bigger event” is needed to truly end the gold bull market. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold could rise to $4,900, while UBS is more conservative, estimating $4,200. These institutional views suggest a generally optimistic long-term outlook for precious metals. In contrast, the oil market remains under pressure—WTI crude fell 2.41% to an average of $59, reflecting structural imbalance with supply growth outpacing demand.

Global Stock Market Performance Retrospective: Tech Stocks Lead Declines, Tesla Surges

In U.S. stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.36%, the S&P 500 declined 0.43%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped the most at 0.94%. The tech sector was broadly under pressure, reflecting decreased risk appetite among investors.

However, Tesla’s stock rose 3.32%, standing out as an anomaly. Industry rumors suggest Elon Musk is reevaluating the capital structure of his companies, including considering an IPO for SpaceX or potential integration with Tesla and xAI. This potential “empire restructuring” expectation supported Tesla’s stock.

The memory chip sector showed internal divergence. Western Digital fell 10.12%, while SanDisk’s intraday gains exceeded 25%, ultimately closing up 6.85%. Bernstein analysts raised SanDisk’s target price to $1,000, 85% above current levels. The company’s quarterly revenue and EPS beat expectations, with gross margin expanding from 52.1% to 65-67%, entering a “super profit period.”

In-Depth Analysis of Technology and Energy Sectors

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure Expansion: Oracle plans to raise $4.5-5 billion through bonds and equity in 2026 to expand cloud infrastructure. This move reflects strong demand in the cloud computing market and the urgency of collaborations with AMD, Meta, Nvidia, OpenAI, and xAI. Institutional investors are generally optimistic but caution that rising borrowing costs could weigh on profits.

Waymo’s Funding Milestone: Google’s autonomous driving division, Waymo, raised approximately $1.6 billion, valuing it at $11 billion, with parent company Alphabet providing $1.3 billion and Sequoia Capital participating. The funding is expected to close in February, further strengthening Waymo’s competitive position in the autonomous taxi market.

ExxonMobil Profit Pressure: ExxonMobil reported Q4 EPS of $1.71, beating expectations, but full-year profit was $28.8 billion, below the $33.7 billion in 2024. Excluding asset impairments, 2025 profit is estimated at $30.1 billion. This downward trend reflects ongoing pressure from oil price fluctuations and energy demand shifts on traditional energy companies.

Crypto Market Review and Risk Assessment

This week, the crypto market also experienced notable adjustments. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $76,000 but has since rebounded to $66,320, up 4.23% in 24 hours. Ethereum surged significantly to $1,980, with a 6.67% increase over 24 hours.

According to Trend Research data, the liquidation price for Ethereum collateral loans has fallen near $1,830, with related losses reaching $562 million. This indicates fragility in leveraged positions. Formula co-founder sold early dip-buying Ethereum holdings due to concerns about the impact of U.S. stock declines on the crypto market. Michael Saylor again posted Bitcoin tracking data, hinting at potential new purchase disclosures this week.

The market faces multiple large token unlock events this week: HYPE’s unlock is approximately $30.5 billion, with BERA, XDC, and others also under significant unlock pressure, adding new risks.

Key Events Calendar and Investment Outlook

Major Economic Data Releases:

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (January)
• U.S. Construction Spending (November)
• U.S. Composite PMI (January)

Important Meeting Updates:

• OPEC-JMMC meeting scheduled this week; investors should closely monitor supply policy changes.

Overall Market Assessment: Recent volatility mainly stems from position liquidations, but the fundamental drivers remain unchanged. Goldman Sachs warns investors not to overinterpret the early-year rally or amplify fears of decline. In the retrospective of precious metals, oil & gas, and the dollar, markets have shown resilience to policy shifts. However, risks from credit leverage and geopolitical uncertainties remain. In the short term, markets will continue to seek balance amid policy signals, economic data, and risk events.