#ETH多空对决 1900 USD reclaim victory, the next target is $2000

Ethereum's rebound today is stronger than Bitcoin's, successfully regaining the $1900 level, with a more positive technical recovery.
● $1900 shifts from resistance to support: $1,900 has been a repeatedly contested level by bulls over the past week. Today's volume-driven recovery indicates this level has initially transformed from resistance into support. The current price is $1,912. If it can hold above $1900, further upward testing is expected.
● Next target at $1950-$1980: From the 4-hour chart, Ethereum's next resistance is in the $1,950-$1,980 range, with a stronger resistance at the $2,000 mark. Breaking through $2,000 would open further room for a rebound.
● Leading declines, leading rebounds: Ethereum has fallen more than Bitcoin over the past week, and today's rebound strength is also greater than Bitcoin's. This "high volatility" characteristic means that when market sentiment warms up, Ethereum often becomes the preferred asset for capital battles.
● ETH/BTC exchange rate slightly rebounds: Ethereum against Bitcoin has risen from around 0.0285 to 0.0292. Although still low, there is short-term recovery. Whether the exchange rate can continue to strengthen is an important indicator of Ethereum's relative strength.

Today's rebound occurs against the backdrop of ongoing macro pressures, but positive signals internally within the industry are emerging that had previously been overlooked. 1. Macro pressures: Risk aversion divergence continues Despite the digital market rebound, macro risk aversion logic remains unchanged. The tariffs escalated by the Trump administration continue to ferment, tensions between Iran and the US are escalating, and funds are still flowing into traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Gold prices stay above $5,100, with silver also strengthening. The divergence between Bitcoin and gold remains a challenge to its "digital gold" narrative.
2. Industry developments: Ethereum Foundation launches treasury staking plan Amid the rebound, positive signals come from Ethereum. The Ethereum Foundation has begun deploying staking for its Ethereum treasury, planning to invest about 70,000 ETH to generate yields. This indicates official participation in the network ecosystem, enhancing capital efficiency through staking, and conveying confidence in the network's long-term development. The liquidity deployment of treasury funds may trigger a chain reaction in ecosystem capital allocation.
3. Key developer movements attract attention: Another aspect of Ethereum is that founder Vitalik Buterin has recently accelerated ETH sales. Such high-level position changes often attract market attention and may reflect developers' outlook on the market or adjustments in capital allocation needs. Although the scale is small, in a fragile market, the founder's sell-off can impact sentiment.
4. Market sentiment: Slowly recovering from "Extreme Fear" Although the Fear & Greed Index remains in the "Extreme Fear" zone, it has risen from 5 yesterday to around 15. Historical experience shows that extreme emotions often accompany market turning points, but recovery from "Extreme Fear" takes time and sustained positive signals.

Market outlook and strategy: Rebound, not reversal, participate cautiously

Today's rebound is a violent correction of previous excessive pessimism. However, before a clear bottom structure forms, the current rise should be viewed as a rebound within a downtrend, and caution is advised in operations. The short-term outlook is that the market will enter a "rebound strength test" phase, with bulls and bears fiercely contesting key resistance levels.
Core range: $1,880 - $1,980.
Focus on resistance in the $1,950-$1,980 area.
If it can break through $2,000, the rebound space will further open; if it cannot hold above $1,900, it may revert to weak oscillation.

Core principles and suggestions:
1. Rebound, not reversal, position control still needed: The current rise is driven by short covering, not solid buying pressure, and sustainability remains to be seen. Positions participating in the rebound should be kept light (e.g., no more than 10%-15% of total funds) to avoid chasing and getting caught.
2. Key level battles, quick in and out: Experienced short-term traders can try long positions near key support at $1,880 or observe for signs of stagnation near resistance at $1,980. Remember, this is a short-term game; do not overstay, and set clear take-profit and stop-loss levels.
3. Wait for right-side confirmation, not bottom-fishing on the left: Some investors may rush to "buy the dip" due to today's rebound.
It’s important to recognize that a single bullish candle does not equal a reversal. A more prudent strategy is to wait for right-side confirmation signals or a bottoming pattern on the daily chart.
The market is still in "defensive mode," requiring more positive signals to confirm a trend reversal.
4. Watch capital flows and volume changes: Whether the rebound can continue depends on whether volume can sustain growth and whether funding rates can shift from "bearish" to "neutral" or "bullish." Also, monitor whether Bitcoin ETF fund flows shift from outflows to inflows — a "weather vane" of institutional confidence.

Market rebounds often arrive quietly at the most desperate moments. Today's short covering is a punishment for excessive pessimism and a reassurance for the steadfast. But a single bullish candle is not enough to change the trend; a rebound alone does not signal reversal. In a "defensive mode," patience, position control, and confirmation are the right approach to navigate through the fog. When panic becomes normal and despair spreads in the market, true opportunities are quietly brewing among the falsely killed chips. But only if — you survive until the moment dawn truly arrives.