February 24, 2026 Morning Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Macro Bearish Factors Dominate, Market Enters Safe-Haven Mode

This morning, the overall cryptocurrency market shows a weak downward trend, with Bitcoin breaking below the key support of $65,000, reaching a low of $63,877, hitting a new low since February 6. The market decline is mainly influenced by multiple macro bearish factors such as uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and weakening Bitcoin ETF capital inflows. Within 24 hours, over 137,500 traders were liquidated, with total liquidation amounting to approximately $465 million. Market sentiment has entered extreme panic.

I. Market Overview and Key Data

As of Beijing time early morning on February 24, 2026, Bitcoin’s global spot price is $64,800 per coin, down 4.23% in 24 hours, with a intraday low of $63,877. The RMB price is ¥448,000 per coin, with a 24-hour high of ¥467,800 and a low of ¥442,000. Bitcoin’s total market cap is approximately ¥9.41 trillion ($1.35 trillion), accounting for 71.5% of the global cryptocurrency market. The 24-hour trading volume is ¥389.08 billion ($38.90 billion), with a turnover rate of 4.34%.

Ethereum also declined, with a quote of $1,885.54, down 2.92%. Other major cryptocurrencies such as Solana fell 4.98%, Dogecoin dropped 0.35%, and XRP decreased 1.16%. The global crypto market is broadly declining, with panic spreading among investors.

II. In-Depth Analysis of the Decline Causes

1. Increasing Macro Policy Uncertainty

U.S. President Trump posted on social media Saturday that retaliatory tariffs against many trade partners will be raised to 15%, “effective immediately.” Just a day earlier, the Supreme Court dismissed his previous trade tax law. XS analyst Linh Tran pointed out that the court’s rejection of Trump’s tariff measures and the government’s subsequent announcement of new global tariffs have significantly increased global trade uncertainty. Policy uncertainty often triggers short-term “safe-haven” sentiment, prompting investors to prefer cash and bonds over highly volatile assets.

2. Escalation of Geopolitical Risks

Last week, President Trump stated that due to Iran’s resistance to the new nuclear agreement, he will decide within “about 10 days” whether to strike Iran. Tensions have been escalating over the past few days, with the U.S. deploying military forces to the Middle East. The increased risk of conflict between the U.S. and Iran has led investors to shift from risk assets like Bitcoin to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, which broke through $5,220, rising 2.4%.

3. Market Liquidity Tightening

Capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have significantly weakened, directly impacting market demand and dampening expectations for a sustainable bull cycle. Over the past three months, U.S.-listed crypto ETFs have experienced nearly $4 billion in net outflows, with a single-day outflow exceeding $74 million. Meanwhile, exchange-held stablecoin reserves have shrunk by 14% over three months, indicating a severe lack of market purchasing power.

4. Technical and Market Structure Factors

Previously, the market repeatedly rebounded but failed to break through the strong resistance at $70,000, with bullish momentum continuously waning and chip structure loosening. The weekly chart shows a double top pattern (79,200/71,400), with the current price breaking below the neckline at $68,000, with a measured target around $60,000. After consecutive daily bearish candles, on February 23, Bitcoin tested support at $64,290 with a long lower shadow and rebounded, releasing short-term selling pressure.

III. Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels

Bitcoin Technical Indicators

Bollinger Bands show the price has broken below the middle band (around $67,170), currently running along the lower and middle bands, with slight opening of the lower band, which often signals weakening oscillation and potential downside risk. The moving average system shows a bearish alignment, with short-term moving averages turning downward. MA5 (around $65,539) is the first resistance level in the day, with the price continuously suppressed below it.

MACD indicates the DIF fast line has crossed below the DEA slow line, forming a death cross, with increasing green bearish momentum bars, indicating strengthening downward momentum. The KDJ indicator is in the low region (between 20-50), not yet forming a golden cross, suggesting market weakness and potential short-term decline inertia.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support: The immediate support is the 24-hour low of $63,888.79, with the Bollinger lower band at $64,512.42 providing some traction. If this support is effectively broken, a new downtrend may begin, with stronger support at the psychological $60,000 level.

Resistance: The first resistance is near the Bollinger middle line ($67,170) and the MA30 at around $67,813.54. Stronger resistance lies at the upper Bollinger band ($69,828.03). If the price stabilizes and rebounds above $66,000, the market may return to a consolidation pattern.

IV. Trading Strategy Recommendations

Short-term Trading (1-3 days)

Bearish Strategy: Given the current dominance of bearish forces, consider short positions in the $67,500–$68,500 range, with a stop-loss at $70,500, targeting below $66,500. If the price effectively breaks below $63,800 support, consider adding to short positions, targeting $62,000–$60,000.

Bullish Strategy: Only suitable for aggressive investors to try long positions lightly in the $63,500–$64,500 range, with a strict 500-point stop-loss, targeting above $66,000. This strategy carries high risk and requires strict position control.

Medium-term Investment (1-4 weeks)

Wait-and-see: The market is currently in a downward continuation pattern, with very weak rebound strength, declining volume, and strong market hesitation. Investors should maintain low positions and wait for clear market signals.

Gradual Position Building: If Bitcoin drops to the $60,000–$62,000 zone, consider building positions gradually, with no more than 20% of total funds initially, adding 10% each time it drops another 5%. This zone aligns with the measured target of the weekly double top structure and offers strong technical support.

Risk Management Points

Position Management: Limit risk per trade to 1%-3% of total funds; avoid full positions.

Stop-loss Discipline: Always set stop-loss orders; avoiding stops is equivalent to risking liquidation. In crypto, longevity is more important than quick gains.

Emotional Control: Strictly distinguish between “planned trades” and “emotional trades,” avoiding impulsive orders driven by fear of missing out or revenge trading.

Asset Selection: Focus on 2-5 familiar coins, with 1-2 fixed strategies, emphasizing stability through repetition rather than novelty.

V. Market Outlook and Key Focus Areas

Short-term Outlook (1-2 weeks)

The market will remain primarily influenced by macro factors. Key events to monitor:

U.S.-Iran developments: Whether Trump will decide on military action against Iran within “about 10 days.”

Tariff policy implementation: The specifics of the new global tariff plan in the U.S.

ETF capital flows: Whether Bitcoin ETFs show signs of capital inflow.

Technical breakthroughs: Whether Bitcoin can re-establish above $66,000 and break through the $67,170 resistance.

Mid- to Long-term Outlook (1-3 months)

Despite short-term pressure, the long-term fundamentals of the crypto market remain intact. Institutional investors are accelerating their deployment, with a shift toward “pro-crypto” policies in the U.S., especially discussions around establishing “Bitcoin strategic reserves,” injecting strong institutional confidence. As Ethereum and other public chains continue upgrades, and new narratives like real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and decentralized social media take hold, the practical value of cryptocurrencies will deepen into the digital economy.

Key Monitoring Indicators

Coinbase Premium: A return to positive values indicates U.S. institutional buyers have re-entered the market.

Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 5 (extreme fear), a rebound above 20 is needed before considering active deployment.

Stablecoin Reserves: Whether exchange stablecoin reserves stop declining and start rising, reflecting market liquidity.

Open Interest: Changes in CME crypto derivatives open interest, indicating institutional fund flows.

This morning, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp decline amid multiple macro bearish factors, with Bitcoin breaking below key support levels and market sentiment plunging into extreme panic. Technical indicators show a market in a downward continuation pattern, with further downside risks in the short term. It is recommended to adopt a defensive approach, strictly control positions and risks, and wait for stabilization signals. In the long term, the fundamentals of the crypto market remain solid, with ongoing institutionalization. The current correction offers strategic opportunities for value investors.

Investors should stay rational, avoid emotional trading, and strictly adhere to trading discipline. In crypto markets, slow is fast, and steady is winning. Only those who survive can enjoy the final victory.